Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in the conterminous United States within this market's timeframe, between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET as described in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2025/). If no tropical systems make landfall in the conterminous United States at hurricane status within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "No". This market may only resolve to "No" after May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Will a hurricane make landfall in the US by May 31? | 2% YES | 98% NO |
The market is pricing the likelihood that a hurricane will make landfall along the continental United States coastline between early December 2025 and the end of May 2026. The 2% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects the Atlantic hurricane season's typical activity patterns during this period, with the winter and early spring months historically producing fewer major hurricanes than the peak season months of August through October.
Landfalling hurricanes in the Atlantic basin during December through May are uncommon but not unprecedented. The 1935 New Year hurricane and Hurricane Beatrice (1976) both made US landfalls in January, whilst Hurricane Ike crossed into Florida in September 2008 after a lengthy Atlantic track. Climatologically, roughly 40% of Atlantic hurricane seasons produce no US landfalls at all, and winter months account for a negligible fraction of annual landfalls. The current 2% probability reflects this seasonal baseline, with traders pricing in the statistical rarity of tropical cyclone development and northward track alignment during cooler water months.
Traders should monitor the National Hurricane Center's seasonal forecasts and any anomalous Atlantic sea-surface temperature patterns that could influence tropical system genesis. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration typically issues updated seasonal outlooks in August and November, with the next major forecast revision expected in November 2025. Real-time tracking will commence once the Atlantic hurricane season formally begins on 1 June 2025, though the market window opens in December when seasonal activity is already declining. Any unexpected warm-water anomalies or atmospheric pattern shifts favouring tropical development would represent material information for position adjustments.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Will a hurricane make landfall in the US by May 31?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$20K in lifetime turnover and $2K of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for climate contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $38 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 5 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 2%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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