Trade: Xi Jinping divorce before 2027?
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Xi Jinping and/or Peng Liyuan announce their intention to divorce between the date of market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An announcement by the specified date of their intention to divorce will be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the divorce later actually occurs, or whether the actual divorce occurs outside of the timeframe of this market. The resolution source will be statements from Xi Jinping and/or Peng Liyuan, and their representatives, however a definitive consensus of credible media reporting may be considered.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $11K
- Total Volume
- $83K
- 24h Volume
- —
- Open Interest
- $14K
Market outcomes
| Xi Jinping divorce before 2027? | 2% YES | 98% NO |
Market context
Xi Jinping and his wife Peng Liyuan have been married since 1979. The market assesses the probability that either would publicly announce an intention to divorce before the end of 2026. Current order book depth on Polymarket implies a 2% probability of such an announcement, reflecting the exceptionally low historical precedent for divorce among Chinese Communist Party leadership at the highest echelons of power.
Divorce among sitting Chinese heads of state is virtually without precedent in the modern era. The last comparable case involving a top-tier CCP leader was Deng Xiaoping, who remained married throughout his tenure. Cultural and political factors have historically made public marital dissolution untenable for figures at Xi's level, where family stability signals political stability. The 2% implied probability reflects this structural constraint rather than recent marital discord indicators.
Traders monitoring this market would focus on official CCP announcements, state media reporting, and statements from Xi's office or Peng Liyuan's representatives. Peng has maintained a relatively low public profile since Xi assumed the presidency in 2012, appearing selectively at state functions and cultural events. Any significant change in their public appearances together, health announcements, or direct statements from either party would constitute material information. The settlement window closes 31 December 2026, meaning only formal announcements of intent—not actual divorce proceedings—would trigger resolution to "Yes".
Wikipedia Context
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Xi JinpingXi Jinping is a Chinese politician who is the fifth paramount leader of the People's Republic of China. He has served as the general secretary of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and chairman of the Party Central Military Commission (CMC) since 2012, the president of China and chairman of the State Central Military Commission since 2013.
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Xi Jinping ThoughtXi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era, commonly abbreviated outside China as Xi Jinping Thought or Xi-ism, is a political doctrine created during the general secretaryship of Xi Jinping of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) that combines Chinese Marxism and national rejuvenation.
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Xi Jinping–Li Keqiang AdministrationThe Xi Jinping–Li Keqiang Administration was the administration of China from 2013 to 2023. Xi Jinping and Li Keqiang succeeded Hu Jintao and Wen Jiabao after the 12th National People's Congress.
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Xi Jinping's cult of personalityA cult of personality has been developing around Xi Jinping since he became General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) in 2012.
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Xi Jinping divorce before 2027?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 2% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $5000 if YES resolves true — a 4900% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$83K in lifetime turnover and $11K of resting liquidity puts this market in the above the median by volume for china contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
The market has been open for 4 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
What is the current probability for "Xi Jinping divorce before 2027?"?
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 2%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Xi Jinping divorce before 2027?"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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