Trade: People's Sexiest Man Alive 2026
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the name of the person who is named People Magazine's Sexiest Man Alive. If more than one person is named Sexiest Man Alive by People Magazine, this market will resolve in favor of the person whose name comes first in alphabetical order. If no Sexiest Man Alive is announced for 2026 by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be People (https://people.com/) or a consensus of credible reporting.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $19K
- Total Volume
- $105K
- 24h Volume
- $7
- Open Interest
- $3K
Market outcomes
| Bad Bunny | 20% YES | 81% NO |
| Clavicular | 3% YES | 97% NO |
| Person 3 | — | |
| Person 8 | — | |
| Person 17 | — | |
| Person 22 | — | |
| Person 24 | — | |
| Person 25 | — | |
Market context
People Magazine annually selects a prominent male celebrity as its Sexiest Man Alive, a tradition dating to 1985. The 2026 edition will be announced sometime during the calendar year, with the market settling based on whoever receives the honour. The current order book on Polymarket implies a 24% probability that someone will be named, with the remaining 76% probability distributed across "Other"—reflecting meaningful uncertainty about whether the magazine will continue the tradition, delay the announcement past year-end, or face unforeseen circumstances affecting publication.
Historical context suggests the tradition remains durable. People has named a Sexiest Man Alive in every year since inception, with selections spanning actors, athletes, musicians, and television personalities. Recent winners have included Patrick Dempsey (2023) and Adam Driver (2022). The magazine typically announces the selection in November or December, though timing has occasionally shifted. The 24% implied probability reflects both the certainty of the tradition's continuation and the inherent difficulty in predicting which individual among thousands of eligible candidates will be selected.
Traders should monitor People Magazine's editorial calendar and any public statements from the publication regarding 2026 plans. Celebrity news cycles, major scandals, or shifts in public perception can influence selection outcomes. The resolution window closes 31 December 2026 at 23:59 ET, meaning any announcement after that date triggers an "Other" resolution. Credible reporting from People's official channels or major news outlets covering the announcement will serve as the settlement source.
Wikipedia Context
-
People (magazine)People is an American weekly magazine that specializes in celebrity news and human-interest stories. It is published by People Inc., a subsidiary of IAC. With a readership of 46.6 million adults in 2009, People had the largest audience of any American magazine, but it fell to second place in 2018 after its readership significantly declined to 35.9 million. A
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "People's Sexiest Man Alive 2026" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$105K in lifetime turnover and $19K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 30% by volume for celebrities contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $7 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 3 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "People's Sexiest Man Alive 2026"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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