Trade: Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha arrested by May 31?
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sinaloa Governor Ruben Rocha Moya is arrested or detained by law enforcement between the time of market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $15K
- Total Volume
- $12K
- 24h Volume
- $113
- Open Interest
- $6K
Market outcomes
| Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha arrested by May 31? | 22% YES | 79% NO |
Market context
Ruben Rocha Moya has served as Governor of Sinaloa since 2021. In October 2024, Mexican federal authorities arrested Ismael "El Mayo" Zambada, the long-time leader of the Sinaloa Cartel, marking a significant shift in cartel dynamics. Rocha has faced persistent allegations of cartel connections, though he has consistently denied involvement in criminal activity. The question of whether he will be arrested or detained by Mexican law enforcement before the end of May 2026 hinges on political will, investigative developments, and the broader trajectory of Mexico's anti-organised crime efforts under the current administration.
Historical precedent offers limited direct comparison. Mexican governors with alleged cartel ties have rarely faced arrest whilst in office, though several have faced investigations post-tenure. The case of Javier Duarte (Veracruz governor, 2010–2016) resulted in arrest only after he fled office in 2016, suggesting institutional reluctance to move against sitting governors. However, the arrest of Zambada and subsequent cartel leadership instability could alter calculus around investigating state-level figures.
The 22% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects uncertainty around several catalysts. Traders should monitor announcements from Mexico's Fiscalía General de la República (FGR) regarding Sinaloa investigations, any shifts in cartel violence patterns that might prompt federal intervention, and statements from the incoming Mexican administration regarding anti-corruption priorities. The timeline extends approximately 18 months, allowing substantial room for investigative or political developments to shift the probability materially.
Wikipedia Context
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Coat of arms of SinaloaThe Coat of arms of Sinaloa is a symbol of the Free and Sovereign State of Sinaloa. It was created by the painter and scholar of Yucatecan heraldry Rolando Arjona Amabilis, was adopted in 1958.
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The Ghost of Tom JoadThe Ghost of Tom Joad is the eleventh studio album by American singer-songwriter Bruce Springsteen, released on November 21, 1995, by Columbia Records. His second primarily acoustic album after Nebraska (1982), The Ghost of Tom Joad reached the top ten in two countries, and the top twenty in five more, including No. 11 in the United States. It was his first
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Sinaloa River
The Sinaloa River is a river of Mexico. It runs across the state of Sinaloa from northeast to southwest, beginning in the Sierra Madre Occidental and emptying into the Gulf of California. Its flow is interrupted mostly by the Bacurato Dam, which created Lake Baccarac in 1978. Below the dam, the flow of the river is largely diverted by an irrigation canal nea
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List of Boland representative cricketers
This is a list of all cricketers who have played first-class, List A or Twenty20 cricket for Boland cricket team in South Africa. Seasons given are first and last seasons; the player did not necessarily play in all the intervening seasons.
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha arrested by May 31?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 22% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $455 if YES resolves true — a 355% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$12K in lifetime turnover and $15K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for cartel contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $113 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
What is the current probability for "Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha arrested by May 31?"?
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 22%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha arrested by May 31?"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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