Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| 64% YES | 37% NO | |
| Alibaba | 9% YES | 92% NO |
| ByteDance | 16% YES | 84% NO |
| Moonshot | 9% YES | 92% NO |
| Z.ai | 11% YES | 90% NO |
| DeepSeek | 10% YES | 91% NO |
| Meta | 14% YES | 87% NO |
| OpenAI | 55% YES | 45% NO |
The Chatbot Arena Leaderboard, maintained by LMSYS at UC Berkeley, ranks large language models through head-to-head user voting comparisons. This market resolves affirmatively if a listed company's model achieves the highest overall ranking on the Text Arena tab by year-end 2026. The leaderboard updates continuously as new models enter evaluation and existing ones improve through updates. Current rankings reflect thousands of user preference votes, though the methodology remains subject to sampling variation and user demographic skew towards English-language preferences.
Historical context suggests leaderboard leadership has shifted substantially over recent cycles. OpenAI's GPT-4 held top positions through 2024, whilst Claude 3.5 Sonnet (Anthropic) and Llama 3.1 (Meta) have competed for leading ranks in 2024–2025. The 63% implied probability reflects market participants' assessment that at least one listed company will maintain or capture the top position within the next two years. This probability incorporates uncertainty around model release schedules, architectural breakthroughs, and the leaderboard's own evolution as new evaluation methodologies emerge.
Key catalysts include scheduled model releases from major developers, typically announced via blog posts or conference presentations. Anthropic, OpenAI, Google DeepMind, and Meta have historically released major updates on irregular schedules. Traders should monitor announcements regarding training improvements, multimodal capabilities, and reasoning enhancements, as these directly influence arena performance. The leaderboard's weighting methodology could also shift if LMSYS adjusts evaluation criteria, affecting which model attributes determine ranking. Current order book depth on Polymarket reflects moderate conviction around the outcome, with tighter spreads suggesting consensus around the 63% level.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$13K in lifetime turnover and $46K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for business contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is strong — order books support five-figure trades with single-cent slippage.
Last 24 hours alone saw $1K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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