Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve based on Safepoint's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. As of market creation, the IPO is scheduled for June 4 (ET). If no such IPO occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before August 2026". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company's outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| <$900M | 9% YES | 91% NO |
| $1.1B–$1.3B | 36% YES | 65% NO |
| $1.5B–$1.7B | 6% YES | 95% NO |
| $900M–$1.1B | 33% YES | 68% NO |
| $1.3B–$1.5B | 7% YES | 94% NO |
| $1.7B+ | 4% YES | 96% NO |
| No IPO before August 2026 | 3% YES | 97% NO |
Safepoint, a UK-based cybersecurity and data protection firm, is scheduled to list on a public exchange on 4 June 2026. The market is pricing the probability that its closing market capitalisation on that first trading day will exceed a specific threshold—currently reflected in a 9% implied probability on Polymarket's order book. Market cap at IPO close depends on the number of shares issued, the offer price set during the roadshow, and opening-day trading dynamics, which can diverge significantly from institutional expectations.
IPO first-day valuations are historically volatile and difficult to predict with precision. Companies in the cybersecurity sector have shown wide variation in debut performance: some, like CrowdStrike, opened well above their offer price and quickly reached substantial valuations, whilst others have traded closer to or below their IPO pricing. The current 9% probability on Polymarket reflects substantial scepticism about Safepoint reaching a particular valuation threshold, suggesting traders view the bar as materially above consensus expectations or that execution risk remains elevated.
Key catalysts include the formal IPO prospectus filing, which will disclose share count and valuation guidance; any updates to the listing schedule; and broader market conditions in late May and early June 2026. Cybersecurity sector momentum, technology sector appetite, and macroeconomic conditions will influence both the offer price and opening-day trading. Any delays to the June listing date would trigger resolution as "No IPO before August 2026," eliminating the valuation question entirely.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Safepoint IPO Closing Market Cap" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$7K in lifetime turnover and $17K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for business contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $432 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 4 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: