Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Fed emergency rate cut before 2027? | 12% YES | 89% NO |
The Federal Reserve would need to convene an unscheduled meeting and cut rates between November 2025 and end-2026 for this market to resolve affirmatively. Emergency FOMC sessions are rare events, typically triggered by acute financial instability or severe economic shocks. The current 12% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects the baseline expectation that the Fed will manage monetary policy through its eight regularly scheduled meetings per year, with emergency action remaining a tail-risk scenario.
Historical precedent suggests emergency rate cuts occur during genuine crises. The Fed last held an unscheduled meeting in March 2020, cutting rates to near-zero amid the pandemic shock. Prior to that, emergency sessions were convened during the 2008 financial crisis and the 1998 Long-Term Capital Management collapse. The 2008 crisis saw multiple emergency cuts, whilst the 2011 European debt crisis and 2015 China devaluation concerns did not trigger unscheduled meetings despite market turbulence. This historical pattern indicates the Fed maintains a high threshold for emergency action, supporting the relatively low probability currently priced.
Traders should monitor economic data releases, labour market reports, and financial stability indicators throughout 2025–2026. Any sharp deterioration in employment, unexpected inflation resurgence, or signs of systemic financial stress could alter the calculus. The Fed's forward guidance and communications around its regular meetings will also signal confidence in the economic outlook. Recent commentary from Fed officials has emphasised data-dependent policy rather than pre-committed paths, meaning surveillance of FOMC statements and speeches remains essential for assessing emergency-cut risk.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$104K in lifetime turnover and $4K of resting liquidity puts this market in the above the median by volume for business contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $38 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 6 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 12%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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