Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to how much "In the Grey" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (May 15 - May 17) are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| <3.5m | 43% YES | 57% NO |
| 3.5-4m | 32% YES | 69% NO |
| 4-4.5m | 26% YES | 74% NO |
| 4.5-5m | 26% YES | 74% NO |
| >5m | 32% YES | 68% NO |
"In the Grey" is scheduled for theatrical release on 16 May 2026, with opening weekend box office performance to be measured across the 15–17 May period using final figures from The Numbers rather than studio estimates. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 44% implied probability, suggesting traders are pricing in meaningful uncertainty around whether the film will achieve its settlement threshold. This probability formation reflects both the film's positioning within the May marketplace and broader domestic box office conditions heading into summer.
Comparable mid-May releases offer useful reference points for calibrating expectations. Films releasing in this window typically face competition from established franchises and established properties, with opening weekends ranging considerably based on genre, marketing spend, and audience reception. Recent May releases have shown volatility in their opening performance, with some underperforming pre-release projections whilst others have exceeded them. The specific threshold brackets in this market will determine whether marginal performance differences prove decisive.
Key catalysts include final marketing spend figures, critic reviews and audience scores following any advance screenings, and broader box office momentum in the weeks preceding release. Any significant industry developments—competing releases shifting dates, unexpected casting announcements, or changes to the film's release strategy—could shift trader positioning materially. The settlement window closes 18 May 2026, providing a narrow window between opening weekend conclusion and final resolution, so traders should monitor The Numbers reporting closely for any revisions to initial figures.
Grob's Attack, or the Grob Opening, is an unconventional chess opening in which White begins with the move:1. g4
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading ""In the Grey" Opening Weekend Box Office" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$6 in lifetime turnover and $2K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for box office contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $6 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 18 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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