Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to the player that wins the 2026 Grand Chess Tour Super Rapid & Blitz Poland tournament scheduled for May 3 - May 10, 2026. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed player to win the 2026 Grand Chess Tour Super Rapid & Blitz Poland tournament per the rules of the Grand Chess Tour, the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the 2026 Grand Chess Tour Super Rapid & Blitz Poland tournament is cancelled, postponed, or partially completed after May 24, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Gukesh Dommaraju | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Javokhir Sindarov | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Fabiano Caruana | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Alireza Firouzja | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Maxime Vachier-Lagrave | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Wesley So | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Hans Niemann | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Jan-Krzysztof Duda | 0% YES | 100% NO |
The Grand Chess Tour's Super Rapid & Blitz Poland event runs 3–10 May 2026, combining two formats where players compete in rapid games (10 minutes plus increment) and blitz games (3 minutes plus increment). The tournament structure typically features a round-robin or knockout format with the overall winner determined by aggregate performance across both time controls. Current Polymarket pricing reflects 0% implied probability, suggesting the order book has not yet formed meaningful liquidity or consensus around any individual player winning the event.
Historical Grand Chess Tour events show volatility in blitz outcomes, particularly when elite players compete in compressed timeframes where preparation matters less than pattern recognition and nerve. The 2024 and 2025 editions saw winners from a relatively narrow cohort of top-20 rated players, though blitz tournaments occasionally produce surprises when specialists in rapid formats outperform classical players. The 0% reading on Polymarket's order book likely indicates sparse trading activity rather than genuine conviction that no player can win; such pricing typically emerges before market participants have positioned themselves.
Traders should monitor the official Grand Chess Tour schedule confirmation and participant roster announcements in early 2026, as late withdrawals or health issues among top seeds have historically shifted blitz tournament outcomes. The May settlement window provides a tight deadline for resolution, meaning any postponement beyond 24 May triggers an "Other" outcome. Watch for any format changes or venue complications that might affect the tournament's completion, as these would directly impact settlement mechanics.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "2026 Grand Chess Tour: Super Rapid & Blitz Poland Winner" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$4K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for blitz contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 11 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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