Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels an Iranian diplomat stationed in that country between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata. An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Another Iranian diplomat expelled by June 30? | 45% YES | 56% NO |
The question concerns whether any country will formally expel an Iranian diplomat between now and 30 June 2026. Such expulsions typically occur in response to alleged espionage, sanctions violations, or broader diplomatic ruptures. The 36% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects moderate conviction that at least one such incident will materialise within the 18-month window.
Diplomatic expulsions of Iranian officials have occurred periodically over the past decade, though frequency varies with geopolitical conditions. The UK, France, and other European nations have expelled Iranian diplomats in response to alleged assassination plots or nuclear programme concerns. The US has maintained minimal diplomatic presence in Iran since 1980. However, expulsions are not routine events—they require sufficient political will and typically follow specific provocations rather than occurring as background noise. The current 36% probability suggests the market perceives meaningful but not dominant risk of such an incident.
Key variables include escalation around Iran's nuclear programme, particularly if negotiations stall or inspections reveal violations; alleged Iranian covert operations in Western countries; and broader Middle Eastern tensions affecting diplomatic relations. The International Atomic Energy Agency's quarterly reports on Iranian compliance provide regular flashpoints. Any credible intelligence disclosures regarding Iranian intelligence activities abroad could trigger rapid expulsions. European nations' willingness to coordinate such actions—as occurred in 2021 and 2022—would amplify impact, since a single coordinated announcement could resolve this market affirmatively.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Another Iranian diplomat expelled by June 30?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$7K in lifetime turnover and $15K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for ambassador contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $17 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 45%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 30 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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