Resolution criteria on PolyGram: Billboard updates its Hot 100 songs chart each Tuesday (with adjusted release schedules on some holiday weeks), reflecting data from the previous week (Friday-Thursday). Each Billboard chart is then titled “Week of (date of the upcoming Saturday)”. This market will resolve according to the number 1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 chart titled “Week of May 2, 2026”. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant chart is published. If the Billboard Hot 100 chart for the specified week is not published within 14 calendar days of the expected release date, this market will resolve to “Other”.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Be Her - Ella Langley | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Potential - sombr | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Elizabeth Taylor - Taylor Swift | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Man I Need - Olivia Dean | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| SWIM - BTS | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Drop Dead - Olivia Rodrigo | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Beauty and a Beat - Justin Bieber, Nicki Minaj | 0% YES | 100% NO |
The Billboard Hot 100 chart published on Tuesday, 28 April 2026 will determine which song holds the number one position for the week ending Saturday, 2 May 2026. This market settles on that chart's release, reflecting streaming, radio airplay, and sales data collected from the preceding Friday through Thursday. The 0% implied probability on Polymarket's order book suggests traders currently assess no particular song as a near-certain chart-topper at this distance, with liquidity concentrated elsewhere or the market reflecting genuine uncertainty about which release will dominate the tracking period.
Historical Hot 100 outcomes show considerable volatility in chart leadership, particularly during spring months when major label releases cluster around summer campaign cycles. Songs typically require sustained momentum across multiple weeks to reach number one, though surprise debuts and rapid climbs remain possible. The current zero probability reflects the market's assessment that no single contender has emerged with sufficient certainty—a rational position given the five-week window before settlement and the typical release schedules of major artists.
Traders should monitor major label announcements and release schedules through March and April 2026, as surprise drops or strategic repositioning can reshape chart dynamics substantially. Radio adds, streaming playlist placements, and international chart performance in the weeks prior often signal which tracks will compete for the top spot. Billboard's occasional schedule adjustments around holidays could affect the exact tracking week, though the 28 April publication date appears standard for the May 2 chart week.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Billboard Hot 100 #1 Song Week of May 2" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$15K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for album contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 2 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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