Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-5.6 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." GPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market) Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| May 31 | 24% YES | 76% NO |
| May 15 | 3% YES | 97% NO |
| May 22 | 11% YES | 90% NO |
| June 30 | 72% YES | 28% NO |
| July 31 | 87% YES | 13% NO |
OpenAI releasing a GPT-5.6 model to the general public by end of July 2026 represents a specific milestone in the company's versioning cadence. The current order book on Polymarket prices this event at 24% implied probability, reflecting substantial scepticism about whether OpenAI will ship a numbered point-release within the next eighteen months. This probability incorporates expectations about both technical development timelines and OpenAI's commercial release strategy.
Historical precedent suggests caution about rapid point-release cycles. OpenAI moved from GPT-4 to GPT-4 Turbo (November 2023) to GPT-4o (May 2024), then introduced GPT-o1 (October 2024) as a reasoning-focused variant rather than a sequential GPT-5 release. The company has shown willingness to skip traditional versioning in favour of capability-specific naming. If GPT-5 launches, the interval to a 5.6 variant would need to compress significantly compared to historical patterns—GPT-3 to GPT-3.5 took roughly eighteen months, whilst GPT-4's point releases spanned similar durations.
Key catalysts include OpenAI's next major model announcement, typically signalled through developer conferences or blog posts rather than advance schedules. The company's recent emphasis on reasoning models and cost-efficient variants suggests development resources may be distributed across multiple product lines rather than concentrated on sequential GPT-5 releases. Any public statements from OpenAI leadership regarding GPT-5 timelines, or competitive releases from Anthropic or Google, would materially shift trader positioning on this outcome.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "GPT-5.6 released by...?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$26K in lifetime turnover and $18K of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for ai contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $4K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 July 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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