Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to “Yes” if credible reporting confirms that any entity enters into an agreement to acquire the listed company by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Mergers where the listed company is subsumed by another entity will count toward a "Yes" resolution. An announced agreement between the listed company and an acquiring entity will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the acquisition is ultimately completed. The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the listed company and/or its leadership; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Will Coingecko be acquired in 2026? | 26% YES | 74% NO |
CoinGecko, the cryptocurrency data and analytics platform, could be acquired by another entity before the end of 2026. The market currently prices this outcome at 24% probability, reflecting modest conviction that a deal announcement will occur within the next twelve months. This settlement window captures any announced agreement, whether or not the transaction closes by year-end, meaning early-stage negotiations that become public would trigger a "Yes" resolution.
Comparable acquisition activity in crypto infrastructure suggests a baseline for deal likelihood. Major platforms including CoinMarketCap (acquired by Binance in 2020) and Messari have attracted strategic buyers seeking established user bases and data assets. However, CoinGecko remains privately held with no disclosed funding rounds or investor pressure typical of venture-backed exits. The 24% implied probability reflects this structural difference: whilst the company possesses valuable market position and traffic, the absence of external capital requirements reduces typical acquisition drivers. Comparable data platforms have seen M&A activity cluster around periods of industry consolidation or when acquirers face specific product gaps.
Traders should monitor announcements from major exchanges, asset managers, and financial data providers regarding strategic acquisitions or partnerships. Recent industry consolidation has slowed relative to 2021–2022 peaks, with most major platforms now focusing on organic expansion rather than bolt-on acquisitions. CoinGecko's independence and profitability (if achieved) would reduce urgency for a sale. The current order book reflects scepticism about near-term deal catalysts, though regulatory changes affecting crypto market infrastructure or shifts in exchange strategy could alter acquisition calculus.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Will Coingecko be acquired in 2026?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$31K in lifetime turnover and $364 of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for acquisitions contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for 4 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 26%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 1 January 2027. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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