Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | 9% YES | 91% NO |
Hantavirus is a rodent-borne pathogen that causes severe respiratory and renal disease in humans, with case fatality rates ranging from 15–50% depending on the strain and region. Outbreaks occur sporadically across the Americas, Europe, and Asia, typically linked to environmental conditions that increase rodent populations or human contact with infected animals. The virus has never been formally designated a pandemic by the World Health Organization, despite periodic clusters of cases in countries including the United States, Argentina, and China.
Historical context suggests the 10% implied probability reflects the rarity of Hantavirus achieving pandemic scale. The 1993 Four Corners outbreak in the southwestern United States, one of the largest documented clusters, resulted in approximately 600 cases across North America over decades. Unlike influenza or coronavirus pathogens, Hantavirus spreads poorly between humans—transmission occurs primarily through inhalation of aerosolised rodent excreta—which substantially constrains epidemic potential. No Hantavirus outbreak has previously triggered a WHO PHEIC declaration, the typical precursor to pandemic characterisation.
Traders should monitor rodent population surveys and environmental data from endemic regions, particularly following heavy rainfall or drought cycles that alter rodent habitat. WHO surveillance reports and disease outbreak notifications from national health authorities in Argentina, Chile, and the United States will provide early signals of unusual case clusters. The resolution criterion requires explicit WHO pandemic characterisation rather than merely a PHEIC declaration, setting a notably high threshold that has not been met historically for this pathogen.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$942K in lifetime turnover and $344K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 2% by volume for weather contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $759K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 9%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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