A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Market outcomes
| Tarcisio de Freitas | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | 38% YES | 63% NO |
| Jair Bolsonaro | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Fernando Haddad | 3% YES | 97% NO |
| Michelle Bolsonaro | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Eduardo Bolsonaro | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Ratinho Júnior | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Renan Santos | 6% YES | 94% NO |
A prediction market is a real-money contract that pays $1 per YES share if the stated outcome occurs, and $0 if it does not. The current price is therefore the crowd's probability estimate — set by thousands of traders competing in a live order book, not a bookmaker. PolyGram routes your order into the same Polymarket venue, adds an email-first login and USDC deposits, and settles on Polygon within minutes of the result.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
The market is scheduled to close on 4 October 2026. Settlement typically clears within 24 hours after the resolving event, once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome.