This market refers to the tennis match between Aryna Sabalenka and Naomi Osaka in the Madrid Open, originally scheduled for April 27, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Aryna Sabalenka' if Aryna Sabalenka advances against Naomi Osaka. This market will resolve to 'Naomi Osaka' if Naomi Osaka advances against Aryna Sabalenka. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
Market outcomes
| Madrid Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Naomi Osaka | 78% YES | 23% NO |
| Madrid Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Naomi Osaka Match O/U 23.5 | 76% YES | 25% NO |
| Madrid Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Naomi Osaka Match O/U 21.5 | 100% YES | 1% NO |
| Madrid Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Naomi Osaka Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Madrid Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Naomi Osaka Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Madrid Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Naomi Osaka Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Madrid Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Naomi Osaka Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Madrid Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Naomi Osaka Set 1 Winner | 0% YES | 100% NO |
A prediction market is a real-money contract that pays $1 per YES share if the stated outcome occurs, and $0 if it does not. The current price is therefore the crowd's probability estimate — set by thousands of traders competing in a live order book, not a bookmaker. PolyGram routes your order into the same Polymarket venue, adds an email-first login and USDC deposits, and settles on Polygon within minutes of the result.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.wtatennis.com/scores. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.wtatennis.com/scores. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
The market is scheduled to close on 4 May 2026. Settlement typically clears within 24 hours after the resolving event, once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome.