Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the Dota 2 match between Nigma Galaxy and Xtreme Gaming in the DreamLeague Group B, initially scheduled for May 15 at 9:30AM ET. This market will resolve to "Nigma Galaxy" if Nigma Galaxy win the match against Xtreme Gaming. This market will resolve to "Xtreme Gaming" if Xtreme Gaming win the match against Nigma Galaxy. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins.
Sports outcome markets settle within hours of game-end via the UMA optimistic oracle, with the YES/NO line refreshing in real time on every meaningful in-game event. Odds will populate live once the order book fills resolving today, backed by $1.2M of resting liquidity.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Match Winner | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Game 1 Winner | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Game 2 Winner | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Game Handicap: Xtreme (-1.5) vs Nigma Galaxy (+1.5) | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Ends in Daytime | 90% YES | 10% NO |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 51% YES | 50% NO |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 10% YES | 90% NO |
Nigma Galaxy and Xtreme Gaming are scheduled to compete in a best-of-three Dota 2 match within DreamLeague's Group B stage on 15 May 2026 at 09:30 ET. The current order book on Polymarket prices Nigma Galaxy's victory at 28%, implying roughly 72% probability for Xtreme Gaming. This pricing reflects the relative strength assessments traders are making between the two rosters ahead of the fixture.
Nigma Galaxy has operated as a tier-one European organisation with a history of International-level performances, though roster stability and recent tournament results will determine their standing in this matchup. Xtreme Gaming represents the Chinese competitive circuit, where the region has consistently produced strong Dota 2 talent. Historical group-stage encounters between European and Chinese teams at DreamLeague events have shown variable outcomes dependent on patch adaptation and team form rather than geography alone. The 28% probability assigned to Nigma suggests traders view them as underdogs, potentially reflecting recent performance metrics or roster changes rather than structural disadvantage.
Key variables affecting settlement include confirmation of both teams' final rosters, any last-minute schedule adjustments, and patch changes released between now and the match date. DreamLeague's official broadcast schedule and team announcements will clarify participation status. The seven-day grace period for delayed matches provides some buffer against minor scheduling disruptions, though cancellation or non-completion would trigger the 50-50 resolution clause. Traders should monitor team social media and esports news outlets for roster announcements or withdrawal notices that could shift the underlying competitive dynamics.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.twitch.tv/esl_dota2ember. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
For this market, the resolution date is 15 May 2026. A UMA proposer can submit the outcome from that moment; the two-hour dispute window closes at , and assuming no counter-claim is staked, winning USDC clears to trader balances by approximately .
If a dispute is filed inside the two-hour window, the outcome escalates to UMA token-holder voting, which extends settlement by roughly 48 hours. Disputed resolutions are rare — fewer than 0.5% of PolyGram markets in 2026 to date — and even rarer for events with clear, verifiable resolution sources.
Funds clear directly to your in-app USDC balance on Polygon. From there, withdrawals are non-custodial: send to any address you control, typical confirmation under 30 seconds, gas paid in USDC if you'd rather not hold MATIC.
Minimum order size on PolyGram is $1.00, with no maximum cap aside from available book depth. Orders route into Polymarket's on-chain CLOB on Polygon; the matching engine pairs YES buyers with NO buyers atomically — every executed trade is settled on-chain with no counterparty risk.
The trade ticket includes a slippage box (default 2%, configurable 0.1%-10%) that caps the worst-case entry price. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning YES (or NO) shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Your slippage tolerance and the depth of resting limit orders determine the actual fill.
PolyGram charges 0% house edge — no spread mark-up, no rake on winnings, no withdrawal fees beyond network gas. The platform earns exclusively from optional features (copy-trade boosts, advanced order types, the yield vault on idle USDC); the trading surface itself is at-cost.
The mechanics for trading "Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$639K in lifetime turnover and $1.2M of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 2% by volume for esports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $639K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.twitch.tv/esl_dota2ember. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 15 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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