Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the Dota 2 match between Team Falcons and Team Spirit in the DreamLeague Group A, initially scheduled for May 16 at 9:30AM ET. This market will resolve to "Team Falcons" if Team Falcons win the match against Team Spirit. This market will resolve to "Team Spirit" if Team Spirit win the match against Team Falcons. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins.
Sports outcome markets settle within hours of game-end via the UMA optimistic oracle, with the YES/NO line refreshing in real time on every meaningful in-game event. Odds will populate live once the order book fills resolving today, backed by $518K of resting liquidity.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 1? | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Total Kills Over/Under 56.5 in Game 1? | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Total Kills Over/Under 57.5 in Game 1? | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Total Kills Over/Under 58.5 in Game 1? | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Game Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Total Kills Over/Under 49.5 in Game 1? | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Total Kills Over/Under 61.5 in Game 1? | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Total Kills Over/Under 59.5 in Game 1? | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Team Falcons play Team Spirit in a DreamLeague Group A best-of-three, with the market resolving on the result if the series is completed. The current 57% yes price reflects Polymarket’s order book rather than a fixed bookmaker line, so it will move with fresh limits, hedging flows and any late roster or schedule information. At this level, the market is pricing Falcons as a modest favourite, but not decisively so, which is consistent with a close pairing in a short series where one draft or early game can swing the whole match.
Recent results suggest little separation between the teams. Team Spirit have already beaten strong opposition in the group stage, sweeping Vici Gaming and edging Team Liquid, while Falcons have also shown they can go long and still recover, drawing Virtus.pro into a 1-1 map split before the event’s broader results placed both sides near the top of the group. The head-to-head record is mixed rather than one-sided: Falcons beat Spirit 2-0 at DreamLeague Season 24, while both teams have since continued to trade results across major events, so the market is not simply replaying an older matchup.
The main catalysts are confirmation of the actual starting time, any pause or reschedule in the Group A timetable, and whether either team enters with a changed draft pool or stand-in risk. A recent report on DreamLeague Season 29 noted Falcons and Spirit were among the early leaders in Group A, with the top four in the group advancing to the upper bracket, so each map matters for seeding as well as qualification. Traders should also watch for any official ESL updates on match order, since group play can cascade if previous series run long, and late information can reprice the order book quickly.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.twitch.tv/esl_dota2. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
For this market, the resolution date is 16 May 2026. A UMA proposer can submit the outcome from that moment; the two-hour dispute window closes at , and assuming no counter-claim is staked, winning USDC clears to trader balances by approximately .
If a dispute is filed inside the two-hour window, the outcome escalates to UMA token-holder voting, which extends settlement by roughly 48 hours. Disputed resolutions are rare — fewer than 0.5% of PolyGram markets in 2026 to date — and even rarer for events with clear, verifiable resolution sources.
Funds clear directly to your in-app USDC balance on Polygon. From there, withdrawals are non-custodial: send to any address you control, typical confirmation under 30 seconds, gas paid in USDC if you'd rather not hold MATIC.
Minimum order size on PolyGram is $1.00, with no maximum cap aside from available book depth. Orders route into Polymarket's on-chain CLOB on Polygon; the matching engine pairs YES buyers with NO buyers atomically — every executed trade is settled on-chain with no counterparty risk.
The trade ticket includes a slippage box (default 2%, configurable 0.1%-10%) that caps the worst-case entry price. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning YES (or NO) shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Your slippage tolerance and the depth of resting limit orders determine the actual fill.
PolyGram charges 0% house edge — no spread mark-up, no rake on winnings, no withdrawal fees beyond network gas. The platform earns exclusively from optional features (copy-trade boosts, advanced order types, the yield vault on idle USDC); the trading surface itself is at-cost.
The mechanics for trading "Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Spirit (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$1.5M in lifetime turnover and $518K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 2% by volume for esports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $1.5M in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.twitch.tv/esl_dota2. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 16 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: