Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the Counter-Strike 3rd place decider match between MOUZ and magic in the PGL Astana Playoffs, initially scheduled for May 17 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "MOUZ" if MOUZ win the match against magic. This market will resolve to "magic" if magic win the match against MOUZ. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins.
Sports outcome markets settle within hours of game-end via the UMA optimistic oracle, with the YES/NO line refreshing in real time on every meaningful in-game event. Current odds favour the YES side at 95%, making this a high-confidence market resolving today, backed by $808K of resting liquidity.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Match Winner | 95% YES | 6% NO |
| Map 1 Winner | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Map 2 Winner | 89% YES | 12% NO |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 14% YES | 87% NO |
| Map Handicap: MOUZ (-1.5) vs magic (+1.5) | 77% YES | 24% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 52% YES | 49% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Rounds | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% YES | 50% NO |
MOUZ are scheduled to play magic in the PGL Astana playoffs’ third-place decider, a best-of-three that carries no title implication but still reflects both teams’ final tournament standing. The market’s 75% implied YES price is being formed from Polymarket’s order book, so it reflects current buyer and seller positioning rather than a fixed estimate. For a match of this type, the main read-through is team quality and recent playoff performance: MOUZ have already shown they can handle elimination pressure in Astana, beating Aurora 2-0 in the quarter-finals after getting through the earlier stage, which supports a market leaning their way.
Comparable playoff markets in Counter-Strike tend to move sharply on confirmed line-ups, map veto context and whether a team has played a longer or shorter route through the bracket. Recent coverage from Skin.Club of the MOUZ-Aurora quarter-final underlined MOUZ’s cleaner late-round decision-making and stronger control on Nuke, while EGamersWorld reported their 2-1 opening win over Gentle Mates in the same event. Traders should watch for official match timing, any changes to the decider format, and whether either side fields stand-ins or makes a last-minute withdrawal; if the match is not played, ends level, or is pushed beyond the market’s seven-day window without a result, resolution changes away from a straight winner call.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.twitch.tv/PGL. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
For this market, the resolution date is 17 May 2026. A UMA proposer can submit the outcome from that moment; the two-hour dispute window closes at , and assuming no counter-claim is staked, winning USDC clears to trader balances by approximately .
If a dispute is filed inside the two-hour window, the outcome escalates to UMA token-holder voting, which extends settlement by roughly 48 hours. Disputed resolutions are rare — fewer than 0.5% of PolyGram markets in 2026 to date — and even rarer for events with clear, verifiable resolution sources.
Funds clear directly to your in-app USDC balance on Polygon. From there, withdrawals are non-custodial: send to any address you control, typical confirmation under 30 seconds, gas paid in USDC if you'd rather not hold MATIC.
Minimum order size on PolyGram is $1.00, with no maximum cap aside from available book depth. Orders route into Polymarket's on-chain CLOB on Polygon; the matching engine pairs YES buyers with NO buyers atomically — every executed trade is settled on-chain with no counterparty risk.
The trade ticket includes a slippage box (default 2%, configurable 0.1%-10%) that caps the worst-case entry price. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning YES (or NO) shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Your slippage tolerance and the depth of resting limit orders determine the actual fill.
PolyGram charges 0% house edge — no spread mark-up, no rake on winnings, no withdrawal fees beyond network gas. The platform earns exclusively from optional features (copy-trade boosts, advanced order types, the yield vault on idle USDC); the trading surface itself is at-cost.
The mechanics for trading "Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs magic (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$704K in lifetime turnover and $808K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 2% by volume for esports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $704K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.twitch.tv/PGL. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 17 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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