Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the Counter-Strike Round 2 match between Monte and magic in the PGL Astana Group Stage, initially scheduled for May 10 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Monte" if Monte win the match against magic. This market will resolve to "magic" if magic win the match against Monte. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Match Winner | 97% YES | 3% NO |
| Map 1 Winner | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Map 2 Winner | 95% YES | 6% NO |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 6% YES | 94% NO |
| Map Handicap: MNTE (-1.5) vs magic (+1.5) | 75% YES | 26% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 90% YES | 10% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Rounds | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% YES | 50% NO |
Monte and magic face off in Round 2 of the PGL Astana Group Stage Counter-Strike competition on 10 May at 10:00 AM ET. The match is a best-of-three format, with settlement determined by outright victory. Polymarket's current order book reflects a 56% implied probability for Monte, suggesting moderate confidence in their favour, though magic retains meaningful backing at 44%. The settlement window closes at 20:00 UTC on the scheduled date, with provisions for 50-50 resolution if the match is cancelled, delayed beyond seven days without completion, or ends in a tie.
Historical precedent in PGL Group Stage matches shows that seeding and recent form carry substantial weight in determining outcomes. Teams entering group stages typically reflect their qualifying performance and roster stability, though upsets occur frequently enough that even favoured sides face genuine uncertainty. The 56-42 split on Polymarket suggests traders view this as a competitive fixture rather than a heavily lopsided encounter, consistent with how Group Stage matches between mid-tier teams are typically priced.
Traders should monitor PGL's official schedule for any last-minute postponements, roster changes, or technical issues that might trigger the seven-day delay clause. Recent announcements from PGL regarding venue logistics and match confirmations should be tracked closely, as Group Stage fixtures occasionally face scheduling pressure. Stand-in player availability and any team-specific preparation updates in the days leading to 10 May will likely influence order book movement as the settlement window approaches.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.twitch.tv/pgl_cs2. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Counter-Strike: Monte vs magic (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$642K in lifetime turnover and $425K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 2% by volume for esports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $642K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.twitch.tv/pgl_cs2. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 10 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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