Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the Counter-Strike Round 1 match between TheMongolz and magic in the PGL Astana Group Stage, initially scheduled for May 9 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "TheMongolz" if TheMongolz win the match against magic. This market will resolve to "magic" if magic win the match against TheMongolz. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Match Winner | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Map 1 Winner | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Map 2 Winner | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs magic (+1.5) | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Rounds | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 100% YES | 0% NO |
TheMongolz and magic are scheduled to compete in a best-of-three Counter-Strike match during the PGL Astana Group Stage on 9 May at 04:00 ET. The settlement window closes at 14:00 UTC the same day, allowing roughly ten hours for the match to conclude. TheMongolz currently trade at 73% implied probability on Polymarket's order book, reflecting market confidence in the Mongolian roster's ability to secure victory in this group-stage fixture.
TheMongolz have established themselves as a consistent top-tier team in international Counter-Strike competition, whilst magic remain a developing roster with less consistent results at marquee events. Historical matchups between teams of differing calibre at PGL events typically see the higher-ranked side favoured between 65–80% depending on recent form and map pool alignment. The current 73% probability sits within this expected range for a matchup between an established international contender and a lesser-seeded opponent, suggesting the market has priced in standard competitive hierarchy rather than anticipating an upset.
Traders should monitor PGL's official schedule confirmation in the days preceding the event, as fixture delays or cancellations at major tournaments can shift probabilities sharply. Recent roster changes or injury announcements affecting either team would constitute material information; neither team has reported significant personnel disruptions as of late April. Map vetoes, typically revealed shortly before match start, may influence late trading if either side shows unexpected vulnerability on the selected pool. The tight settlement window means technical delays or administrative issues could trigger the 50-50 tie resolution clause, a tail risk currently underpriced relative to major esports event disruption rates.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.twitch.tv/PGL. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs magic (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$916K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 2% by volume for esports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $817K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.twitch.tv/PGL. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 9 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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