Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the Counter-Strike Round 3 match between FURIA and Spirit in the PGL Astana Group Stage, initially scheduled for May 11 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "FURIA" if FURIA win the match against Spirit. This market will resolve to "Spirit" if Spirit win the match against FURIA. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Match Winner | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Map 1 Winner | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Map 2 Winner | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs FURIA (+1.5) | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Rounds | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 10% YES | 90% NO |
FURIA and Spirit will contest a best-of-three Counter-Strike match in the PGL Astana Group Stage on 11 May at 10:00 AM ET. The current order book on Polymarket prices FURIA's victory at 41%, implying Spirit as favourites at approximately 59%. This probability reflects real-time trading activity across the platform's liquidity pools, with the spread between bid and ask orders determining the marginal price that traders observe today.
Historically, Spirit have maintained a stronger international ranking than FURIA in Counter-Strike 2 competition, though FURIA's domestic Brazilian scene has produced occasional upsets against higher-seeded opposition. The 41% probability for FURIA suggests the market views them as underdogs but not prohibitive ones—a positioning consistent with their occasional capability to compete at tier-one events. Spirit's consistency in group-stage formats typically translates to shorter odds, though individual map pools and recent form volatility can shift outcomes substantially.
Traders should monitor roster announcements or last-minute lineup changes in the days preceding the match, as Counter-Strike tournaments occasionally feature stand-in players that materially affect competitive balance. The PGL Astana schedule's progression will also determine fatigue levels, with earlier matches in a group stage potentially favouring teams with fresher preparation. Any official postponement or format changes from PGL would reset market assumptions; the settlement window closes at 20:00 UTC on 11 May, allowing approximately ten hours post-scheduled start time for match completion.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.twitch.tv/PGL. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Spirit (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$2.1M in lifetime turnover and $2.3M of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 2% by volume for esports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $2.1M in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.twitch.tv/PGL. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 11 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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