Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the Counter-Strike Round 2 match between Team Falcons and 9z in the PGL Astana Group Stage, initially scheduled for May 10 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Team Falcons" if Team Falcons win the match against 9z. This market will resolve to "9z" if 9z win the match against Team Falcons. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Map Handicap: 9z (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Match Winner | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Map 1 Winner | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Map 2 Winner | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Rounds | 100% YES | 0% NO |
Team Falcons, the Saudi-backed organisation that won the PGL Major Copenhagen in 2024, face 9z, the Argentine squad, in a best-of-three group stage match at PGL Astana. The fixture is scheduled for 10 May at 10:00 AM ET, with settlement closing at 20:00 UTC the same day. Polymarket's order book currently reflects an 84% implied probability for a Falcons victory, pricing 9z at 16 cents.
Falcons' Major-winning pedigree and consistent top-four finishes at tier-one events establish them as clear favourites in most matchups. However, 9z have demonstrated capacity to compete against established teams in regional and international qualifiers, particularly on maps where their tactical flexibility creates friction. The 84% probability sits within the typical range for matches between a top-five ranked team and a mid-tier opponent, though it leaves meaningful room for upset scenarios—9z have taken maps off stronger sides in recent months.
Key variables affecting settlement include roster stability through May, as both organisations occasionally field stand-ins for group stage matches. PGL's scheduling history suggests minimal delay risk, though the seven-day forfeit clause creates a narrow window where administrative issues could trigger a 50-50 resolution. Traders should monitor official PGL announcements regarding any roster changes or venue complications closer to the event date, as these would shift the probability meaningfully. Current liquidity on the order book will likely tighten as the match approaches.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.twitch.tv/PGL. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs 9z (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$1.7M in lifetime turnover and $672K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 2% by volume for esports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $1.7M in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.twitch.tv/PGL. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 10 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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