Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Jannik Sinner and Daniil Medvedev in the Internazionali BNL d'Italia, originally scheduled for May 15, 2026 at 1:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Jannik Sinner' if Jannik Sinner advances against Daniil Medvedev. This market will resolve to 'Daniil Medvedev' if Daniil Medvedev advances against Jannik Sinner. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
Sports outcome markets settle within hours of game-end via the UMA optimistic oracle, with the YES/NO line refreshing in real time on every meaningful in-game event. Current odds favour the YES side at 91%, making this a high-confidence market with 7 days to resolution, well inside the window where catalysts move price most, backed by $355K of resting liquidity.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev | 91% YES | 9% NO |
| Completed Match | 53% YES | 48% NO |
| Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev Set 1 Winner | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 99% YES | 1% NO |
| Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Jannik Sinner and Daniil Medvedev are scheduled to meet in the second round of the Internazionali BNL d'Italia on 15 May 2026. The 92% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects strong backing for Sinner to advance, with the current spread between YES and NO orders pricing Medvedev's chances at approximately 8%. This probability is being formed by traders pricing in Sinner's recent form, ranking position, and surface suitability rather than any match-specific intelligence at this stage of the tournament calendar.
Sinner's dominance on clay courts and his ranking trajectory provide historical context for the high probability. He won the 2024 Australian Open and has consistently performed well at Masters 1000 events on clay, whilst Medvedev—traditionally stronger on hard courts—has shown less consistency on the red surface. Head-to-head records and recent tournament results from spring 2026 will sharpen this assessment as the event approaches, though current pricing already reflects Sinner's structural advantages in this matchup.
Traders should monitor first-round results from both players, any injury announcements, and broader tournament seeding developments. The settlement window extends to 22 May, providing a seven-day buffer beyond the scheduled date; matches delayed beyond this point without completion would trigger a 50-50 resolution. Surface conditions at the Foro Italico and any late withdrawals from the draw represent the primary catalysts that could shift current market pricing materially.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
For this market, the resolution date is 22 May 2026. A UMA proposer can submit the outcome from that moment; the two-hour dispute window closes at , and assuming no counter-claim is staked, winning USDC clears to trader balances by approximately .
If a dispute is filed inside the two-hour window, the outcome escalates to UMA token-holder voting, which extends settlement by roughly 48 hours. Disputed resolutions are rare — fewer than 0.5% of PolyGram markets in 2026 to date — and even rarer for events with clear, verifiable resolution sources.
Funds clear directly to your in-app USDC balance on Polygon. From there, withdrawals are non-custodial: send to any address you control, typical confirmation under 30 seconds, gas paid in USDC if you'd rather not hold MATIC.
Minimum order size on PolyGram is $1.00, with no maximum cap aside from available book depth. Orders route into Polymarket's on-chain CLOB on Polygon; the matching engine pairs YES buyers with NO buyers atomically — every executed trade is settled on-chain with no counterparty risk.
The trade ticket includes a slippage box (default 2%, configurable 0.1%-10%) that caps the worst-case entry price. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning YES (or NO) shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Your slippage tolerance and the depth of resting limit orders determine the actual fill.
PolyGram charges 0% house edge — no spread mark-up, no rake on winnings, no withdrawal fees beyond network gas. The platform earns exclusively from optional features (copy-trade boosts, advanced order types, the yield vault on idle USDC); the trading surface itself is at-cost.
The mechanics for trading "Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$2.7M in lifetime turnover and $355K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 2% by volume for tennis contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $2.7M in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 22 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: