This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from April 27 12:00 PM ET to April 29, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
Market outcomes
| <40 | 10% YES | 91% NO |
| 40-64 | 47% YES | 53% NO |
| 65-89 | 32% YES | 69% NO |
| 90-114 | 10% YES | 90% NO |
| 115-139 | 3% YES | 97% NO |
| 140-164 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 165-189 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 190-214 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
A prediction market is a real-money contract that pays $1 per YES share if the stated outcome occurs, and $0 if it does not. The current price is therefore the crowd's probability estimate — set by thousands of traders competing in a live order book, not a bookmaker. PolyGram routes your order into the same Polymarket venue, adds an email-first login and USDC deposits, and settles on Polygon within minutes of the result.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://x.com/elonmusk. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
Resolution is sourced from https://x.com/elonmusk. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
The market is scheduled to close on 29 April 2026. Settlement typically clears within 24 hours after the resolving event, once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome.