Resolution criteria on PolyGram: An interview of Donald Trump with Bret Baier is scheduled to air on May 15, 2026, at 7 PM ET. ((https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/fox-news-channel-conduct-first-172700257.html). This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during the specified appearance. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". If clips of old interviews or prerecorded videos are aired where Trump is speaking, those clips will count toward this market's resolution. Plural and possessive forms of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market regardless of context; however, other forms will NOT count.
Election and policy markets historically tighten as polling firms publish their final round and prediction-market traders fade or back the consensus. Odds will populate live once the order book fills (the resolution date has passed — final payout is being settled via UMA oracle), backed by $1.2M of resting liquidity.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Biden | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Inflation | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Chip / Ship | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Child | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Taiwan | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Dumbocrat | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Eight Wars / Eighth War | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Bret Baier will conduct a live interview with Donald Trump on Fox News Channel on 15 May 2026 at 7 PM ET. This market resolves affirmatively if Trump utters a specific term during the broadcast or any prerecorded clips of him speaking that air during the segment. The settlement window closes at midnight UTC on the resolution date, giving traders clarity on the final outcome within hours of the interview's conclusion.
Historical precedent suggests Trump's frequency of particular vocabulary varies substantially across interview formats and interviewers. Baier's interview style—direct and fact-focused—typically elicits more measured responses than cable news personalities known for softer questioning. The 57% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects genuine uncertainty about whether Trump will deploy the specific term in question, with the crowd pricing in both the possibility of his avoiding it entirely and the baseline likelihood of its appearance in extended remarks. Previous Trump interviews with Baier have lasted between 15 and 25 minutes, providing sufficient airtime for most vocabulary patterns to emerge.
The primary catalyst remains the interview itself, scheduled for live broadcast. Traders should monitor any last-minute schedule changes or format adjustments announced by Fox News in the days preceding 15 May. Trump's recent public statements and rally speeches offer limited predictive value, as interview settings typically produce different rhetorical patterns. The current order book pricing reflects the absence of additional information; any pre-interview statements from Trump or Baier regarding interview topics could shift probabilities materially before the broadcast.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
For this market, the resolution date is 15 May 2026. A UMA proposer can submit the outcome from that moment; the two-hour dispute window closes at , and assuming no counter-claim is staked, winning USDC clears to trader balances by approximately .
If a dispute is filed inside the two-hour window, the outcome escalates to UMA token-holder voting, which extends settlement by roughly 48 hours. Disputed resolutions are rare — fewer than 0.5% of PolyGram markets in 2026 to date — and even rarer for events with clear, verifiable resolution sources.
Funds clear directly to your in-app USDC balance on Polygon. From there, withdrawals are non-custodial: send to any address you control, typical confirmation under 30 seconds, gas paid in USDC if you'd rather not hold MATIC.
Minimum order size on PolyGram is $1.00, with no maximum cap aside from available book depth. Orders route into Polymarket's on-chain CLOB on Polygon; the matching engine pairs YES buyers with NO buyers atomically — every executed trade is settled on-chain with no counterparty risk.
The trade ticket includes a slippage box (default 2%, configurable 0.1%-10%) that caps the worst-case entry price. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning YES (or NO) shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Your slippage tolerance and the depth of resting limit orders determine the actual fill.
PolyGram charges 0% house edge — no spread mark-up, no rake on winnings, no withdrawal fees beyond network gas. The platform earns exclusively from optional features (copy-trade boosts, advanced order types, the yield vault on idle USDC); the trading surface itself is at-cost.
The mechanics for trading "What will Trump say during Bret Baier interview?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$1.1M in lifetime turnover and $1.2M of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 2% by volume for trump contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $1.0M in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 15 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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