Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | 31% YES | 69% NO |
Ukraine and Russia reaching a negotiated settlement—whether a formal peace treaty, ceasefire agreement, or structured roadmap toward peace—remains a contested outcome with significant geopolitical implications. The current 31% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects substantial uncertainty about whether such an accord materialises within the next two years. This probability is being formed by traders pricing in the gap between diplomatic rhetoric and the material incentives each side faces, alongside the settlement's broad definition: any written instrument committing both parties to ending hostilities or a defined peace process qualifies.
Historical precedent offers limited guidance. The Budapest Memorandum (1994) and Minsk agreements (2014–2015) both involved Ukraine and Russia but ultimately failed to prevent or resolve conflict. The 2022 Istanbul talks produced no signed agreement, whilst subsequent diplomatic channels—including UN-brokered grain corridors and prisoner exchanges—have operated outside formal peace frameworks. These examples suggest that even when negotiations occur, converting them into binding instruments addressing core disputes (territorial control, security guarantees, NATO membership) proves exceptionally difficult.
Near-term catalysts centre on shifts in military momentum, US policy under the incoming administration, and European diplomatic initiatives. Reports in late 2024 indicated preliminary discussions around potential talks, though no formal negotiations have commenced. Traders should monitor announcements regarding peace envoys, multilateral mediation efforts, and any statements from Ukrainian or Russian leadership signalling willingness to engage on settlement terms. The timeline pressure—resolution by end-2026—means sustained diplomatic activity would need to accelerate significantly from current levels.
Russian Sign Language is the sign language used by the Deaf community in Russia, with what is possibly additional presence in Belarus and Tajikistan. It belongs to the French Sign Language family.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$1.5M in lifetime turnover and $81K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 2% by volume for ukraine contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $150K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for 7 months — long enough that the order book is mature and price is well-anchored to fundamentals.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 31%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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