Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly announces, that the United States will officially refer to the Strait of Hormuz as the "Strait of Trump" or "Trump Strait" or any equivalent name which includes "Trump" by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Donald Trump however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Election and policy markets historically tighten as polling firms publish their final round and prediction-market traders fade or back the consensus. Current odds favour the NO side at 1%, making this a high-confidence market with 15 days to resolution — long enough that information asymmetry can still move the line meaningfully, backed by $41K of resting liquidity.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? | 1% YES | 99% NO |
The question concerns whether the Trump administration will officially rename the Strait of Hormuz—one of the world's most critical maritime chokepoints through which roughly 21% of global petroleum passes—to include Trump's name by the end of May 2026. Such a renaming would represent an unprecedented assertion of personal branding over international geography and would require either unilateral US declaration or coordination with regional states bordering the waterway, namely Iran, Oman, and the United Arab Emirates.
Historical precedent offers limited guidance. Whilst Trump has demonstrated willingness to rename institutions during his first term—most notably the Trump National Forest previously known as the Cascade-Siskiyou National Monument—renaming an international strait involves far greater diplomatic complexity and international law considerations. The Strait of Hormuz's designation is established through maritime conventions and regional agreements; unilateral US renaming would lack binding force internationally. No sitting US president has attempted to rename a major international waterway after themselves, and such an action would likely provoke diplomatic pushback from regional partners and international maritime authorities.
The current 1% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects the substantial structural barriers to this outcome. Traders should monitor Trump administration statements regarding Iran policy, regional engagement, and any public rhetoric about the Strait itself. The settlement window extends through May 2026, providing a 16-month observation period. Catalysts would include formal policy announcements from the State Department or presidential statements explicitly proposing the renaming, though the absence of any such signals to date suggests the market's low probability accurately reflects genuine implausibility.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
For this market, the resolution date is 31 May 2026. A UMA proposer can submit the outcome from that moment; the two-hour dispute window closes at , and assuming no counter-claim is staked, winning USDC clears to trader balances by approximately .
If a dispute is filed inside the two-hour window, the outcome escalates to UMA token-holder voting, which extends settlement by roughly 48 hours. Disputed resolutions are rare — fewer than 0.5% of PolyGram markets in 2026 to date — and even rarer for events with clear, verifiable resolution sources.
Funds clear directly to your in-app USDC balance on Polygon. From there, withdrawals are non-custodial: send to any address you control, typical confirmation under 30 seconds, gas paid in USDC if you'd rather not hold MATIC.
Minimum order size on PolyGram is $1.00, with no maximum cap aside from available book depth. Orders route into Polymarket's on-chain CLOB on Polygon; the matching engine pairs YES buyers with NO buyers atomically — every executed trade is settled on-chain with no counterparty risk.
The trade ticket includes a slippage box (default 2%, configurable 0.1%-10%) that caps the worst-case entry price. At the current YES price of 1%, a $100 stake on YES would buy shares paying out at $1.00 each on resolution — your slippage tolerance and the depth of resting limit orders determine the actual fill.
PolyGram charges 0% house edge — no spread mark-up, no rake on winnings, no withdrawal fees beyond network gas. The platform earns exclusively from optional features (copy-trade boosts, advanced order types, the yield vault on idle USDC); the trading surface itself is at-cost.
The mechanics for trading "Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$1.0M in lifetime turnover and $41K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 2% by volume for geopolitics contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is strong — order books support five-figure trades with single-cent slippage.
Last 24 hours alone saw $451K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 1%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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