Trade: Los Angeles Mayoral Election
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: The 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on June 2, 2026, to elect the mayor of Los Angeles, California. If no candidate receives a majority of the vote, a runoff election will be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate that wins the election. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the City of Los Angeles.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $1.3M
- Total Volume
- $5.3M
- 24h Volume
- $413K
- Open Interest
- $2.4M
Market outcomes
| Karen Bass | 67% YES | 34% NO |
| Asaad Alnajjar | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Other | — | |
| Austin Beutner | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Monica Rodriguez | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Nithya Raman | 13% YES | 88% NO |
| Candidate H | — | |
| Candidate J | — | |
Market context
Los Angeles will hold a mayoral election on 2 June 2026, with a potential runoff scheduled for 3 November if no candidate secures an outright majority. The current order book on Polymarket implies a 64% probability that the election will proceed as scheduled and produce a winner by the settlement deadline. This reflects baseline confidence in the electoral process, though the specific identity of the winner remains contested across other related markets.
Historical precedent suggests June mayoral elections in Los Angeles typically proceed without significant delays or complications. The 2022 election resulted in a runoff between Karen Bass and Rick Caruso, resolved in November of that year. Bass won with approximately 51.8% of the vote. The two-round system has been standard since 2001, and the City of Los Angeles has administered these elections without material procedural disruptions in recent cycles. The 64% probability on this binary market reflects confidence in basic electoral execution rather than prediction of any particular candidate's success.
Traders should monitor candidate announcements and campaign formation activity through late 2025 and early 2026. Key catalysts include official filing deadlines, polling releases from credible organisations, and any unexpected withdrawals or endorsement shifts among major contenders. The Los Angeles Times and local reporting from outlets covering City Hall will provide primary signals on campaign momentum. Potential complications—such as legal challenges to ballot access or unforeseen scheduling changes—remain possible but historically uncommon for mayoral elections in the jurisdiction.
Wikipedia Context
-
2026 Los Angeles mayoral electionThe 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on June 2, 2026, to elect the mayor of Los Angeles, California. If no candidate receives a majority of the vote, a runoff election will be held on November 3, 2026. Incumbent mayor Karen Bass announced her re-election bid in July 2024.
-
2001 Los Angeles mayoral election
The 2001 Los Angeles mayoral election was for a four-year term as mayor of Los Angeles, California. It took place on April 10, 2001, with a runoff on June 5, 2001. Incumbent mayor Richard Riordan was prevented from running for a third term because of term limits. In the election to replace him, then-City Attorney James Hahn defeated Antonio Villaraigosa, the
-
1993 Los Angeles mayoral election
The 1993 Los Angeles mayoral election took place on April 20, 1993, with a run-off election on June 8, 1993. This was the first race in 64 years that an incumbent was not on the ballot. It marked the first time in 24 years that retiring Mayor Tom Bradley was not on the ballot, after five consecutive victories starting in 1973. Richard Riordan became the firs
-
2009 Los Angeles mayoral electionThe 2009 Los Angeles mayoral election took place on March 3, 2009. Incumbent mayor Antonio R. Villaraigosa was re-elected overwhelmingly and faced no serious opponent. Villaraigosa would have faced a run-off against second place-finisher Walter Moore had he failed to win a majority of the vote. Villaraigosa won the election despite having generally unfavorab
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Los Angeles Mayoral Election" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$5.3M in lifetime turnover and $1.3M of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 2% by volume for mayor contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $413K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for 8 months — long enough that the order book is mature and price is well-anchored to fundamentals.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 2 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Los Angeles Mayoral Election"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
Related prediction markets
Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: