Trade: Lai Ching-te impeached by June 30?
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of Taiwan, Lai Ching-te, is formally impeached by the Legislative Yuan by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the Legislative Yuan propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lai Ching-te, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment. The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Taiwanese government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $15K
- Total Volume
- $475K
- 24h Volume
- $459K
- Open Interest
- $23K
Market outcomes
| Lai Ching-te impeached by June 30? | 3% YES | 98% NO |
Market context
Taiwan's President Lai Ching-te faces formal impeachment proceedings in the Legislative Yuan before 30 June 2026. The Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) currently holds 51 of 113 seats, whilst the opposition China Unification Promotion Party and Chinese Unionist Union together command sufficient numbers to initiate impeachment. A successful motion requires a two-thirds majority (76 votes) to pass the Legislative Yuan, followed by Constitutional Court review. The 2% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects the substantial procedural and political barriers to removing a sitting president within this timeframe.
Historical precedent suggests impeachment of a sitting Taiwanese president remains extraordinarily rare. Former President Chen Shui-bian faced corruption charges after leaving office; no sitting president has been successfully impeached since Taiwan's democratisation. The threshold of 76 votes represents a supermajority that typically requires cross-party consensus on serious constitutional violations. Current political dynamics show the opposition controlling enough seats to initiate proceedings but lacking the consensus needed for passage, particularly given Lai's DPP maintains legislative plurality.
Traders should monitor several catalysts: major corruption allegations involving Lai or senior cabinet members; unexpected shifts in cross-party relations; and any Constitutional Court rulings on related matters that might embolden opposition action. Taiwan's legislative calendar and any scheduled interpellation sessions could provide flashpoints. Recent reporting from Taiwan's Central News Agency and Legislative Yuan statements will signal whether formal impeachment motions gain traction, though the compressed 18-month window makes legislative action before June 2026 unlikely absent extraordinary political upheaval.
Wikipedia Context
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Lai Ching-teLai Ching-te, also known as William Lai, is a Taiwanese politician and physician who has served as the eighth president of the Republic of China since 2024. A member of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), he has been the party's chairman since 2023.
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Lai Chin-linLai Chin-lin is a Taiwanese politician. He was elected to the National Assembly in 1991 and served until 1999, when he took office as a member of the Legislative Yuan. He left the Legislative Yuan in 2004 and became vice minister of the Council of Labor Affairs.
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Lai Ching (constituency)Lai Ching is one of the 37 constituencies in the Kwun Tong District of Hong Kong which was created in 1991.
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Lai Ching Lung
Lai Ching Lung is a Hong Kong medical physician. Lai studied at Diocesan Boys' School, and subsequently in the Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine for Bachelor of Medicine and Bachelor of Surgery in 1970. Asteroid 26743 Laichinglung, discovered by Bill Yeung in 2001, was named after him. The official naming citation was published by the Minor Planet Center on 6
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Lai Ching-te impeached by June 30?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 3% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $3333 if YES resolves true — a 3233% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$475K in lifetime turnover and $15K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 2% by volume for geopolitics contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $459K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for 4 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
What is the current probability for "Lai Ching-te impeached by June 30?"?
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 3%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 30 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Lai Ching-te impeached by June 30?"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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