Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official security agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed deal between the governments of Israel and Syria by September 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market refers only to agreements which directly address border security and demarcation, normalization, or diplomatic recognition or otherwise creates a formalized security framework between the two states.
Election and policy markets historically tighten as polling firms publish their final round and prediction-market traders fade or back the consensus. Odds will populate live once the order book fills (the resolution date has passed — final payout is being settled via UMA oracle), backed by $13K of resting liquidity.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| September 30 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| December 31 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| October 31 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| November 30 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| January 31 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| March 31 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| June 30 | 8% YES | 92% NO |
Israel and Syria have been in reported talks over a security arrangement since late 2024, but no publicly announced, mutually signed deal has been confirmed. The event here is narrower than a ceasefire: the market needs an official agreement covering border security, demarcation, normalisation or a formal security framework. On Polymarket’s order book, the 0% implied probability indicates no meaningful YES liquidity today, so the displayed price is being set by the absence of bids rather than a consensus view that a deal is impossible.
The closest comparables are prior Arab-Israeli security pacts that began as limited de-escalation measures before any broader political thaw. Reporting in 2025-26 described repeated US-brokered rounds, a joint fusion mechanism, and draft terms involving demilitarised zones and Israeli withdrawals, but also persistent gaps over Israeli forces in Syrian territory and the future of the Golan. The Times of Israel reported in May 2026 that President al-Sharaa said talks had not reached a dead end, while saying progress was difficult because Israel wanted to keep a presence on Syrian soil.
Traders should watch for a formal statement from Damascus, Jerusalem or Washington, plus any confirmed summit or signing ceremony. Recent reports from Axios, i24NEWS and Middle East Eye point to US mediation, possible Paris-side meetings and pressure from the Trump administration as key dependencies. The most relevant catalyst would be a public text or joint communiqué that explicitly covers border security and territorial arrangements; softer signals such as intelligence-sharing, liaison offices or temporary de-escalation do not meet the market’s threshold.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
For this market, the resolution date is 31 December 2025. A UMA proposer can submit the outcome from that moment; the two-hour dispute window closes at , and assuming no counter-claim is staked, winning USDC clears to trader balances by approximately .
If a dispute is filed inside the two-hour window, the outcome escalates to UMA token-holder voting, which extends settlement by roughly 48 hours. Disputed resolutions are rare — fewer than 0.5% of PolyGram markets in 2026 to date — and even rarer for events with clear, verifiable resolution sources.
Funds clear directly to your in-app USDC balance on Polygon. From there, withdrawals are non-custodial: send to any address you control, typical confirmation under 30 seconds, gas paid in USDC if you'd rather not hold MATIC.
Minimum order size on PolyGram is $1.00, with no maximum cap aside from available book depth. Orders route into Polymarket's on-chain CLOB on Polygon; the matching engine pairs YES buyers with NO buyers atomically — every executed trade is settled on-chain with no counterparty risk.
The trade ticket includes a slippage box (default 2%, configurable 0.1%-10%) that caps the worst-case entry price. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning YES (or NO) shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Your slippage tolerance and the depth of resting limit orders determine the actual fill.
PolyGram charges 0% house edge — no spread mark-up, no rake on winnings, no withdrawal fees beyond network gas. The platform earns exclusively from optional features (copy-trade boosts, advanced order types, the yield vault on idle USDC); the trading surface itself is at-cost.
The mechanics for trading "Israel x Syria security agreement by 2025?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$4.1M in lifetime turnover and $13K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 2% by volume for geopolitics contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $1.3M in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for 9 months — long enough that the order book is mature and price is well-anchored to fundamentals.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 December 2025. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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