Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 1 12:00 PM ET to May 8, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| <20 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 20-39 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 40-59 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 60-79 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 80-99 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 500+ | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 100-119 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 120-139 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
This market tracks the volume of posts Elon Musk publishes to X's main feed during a specific seven-day window in May 2026, excluding replies unless they appear directly on his feed timeline. The resolution mechanism counts original posts, quote posts, and reposts that remain visible for approximately five minutes, whilst community notes and deleted content that disappears before capture do not register.
Musk's posting frequency on X has historically varied considerably based on external events and business developments. During periods of significant corporate activity—such as Tesla earnings announcements, SpaceX launches, or regulatory developments affecting his companies—his tweet volume typically increases substantially. Conversely, weeks without major scheduled events or controversies have seen notably lower posting rates. Historical data suggests his weekly output ranges from single digits during quiet periods to over 50 posts during high-activity weeks, making baseline forecasting dependent on what occurs during the May 1-8 window.
The May 2026 period carries several potential catalysts. Tesla's Q1 2026 earnings report and shareholder meeting timing could drive posting activity, as could any scheduled SpaceX operations or Starship test flights. Regulatory announcements regarding autonomous vehicles or cryptocurrency policy may also prompt commentary. Additionally, Musk's engagement with platform developments at X itself—including feature rollouts or competitive pressures from other social networks—could influence his posting behaviour. Traders should monitor Tesla and SpaceX calendars, regulatory news feeds, and X platform announcements in the weeks preceding the settlement window.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://x.com/elonmusk. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Elon Musk # tweets May 1 - May 8, 2026?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$9.4M in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 2% by volume for pop culture contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $1.7M in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://x.com/elonmusk. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 8 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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