This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from April 27 12:00 PM ET to April 29, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
Market outcomes
| <40 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 40-64 | 13% YES | 87% NO |
| 65-89 | 62% YES | 38% NO |
| 90-114 | 15% YES | 85% NO |
| 115-139 | 3% YES | 97% NO |
| 140-164 | 1% YES | 100% NO |
| 165-189 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 190-214 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Polymarket settles political markets from authoritative sources — Associated Press race calls for US elections, the relevant electoral commission for national votes, and the UMA optimistic oracle for contested or ambiguous resolutions. Prices you see are probabilities derived from thousands of traders deploying real capital; they update in real time as new polls, debates, endorsements and news hit the tape. PolyGram surfaces the same order book with an email-first login and USDC settlement on Polygon.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://x.com/elonmusk. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
Resolution is sourced from https://x.com/elonmusk. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
The market is scheduled to close on 29 April 2026. Settlement typically clears within 24 hours after the resolving event, once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome.