Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the title of the film with the highest 2026 gross according to the "Gross" column on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/2026/?grossesOption=calendarGrosses once data for December 31 is made available. Note: This market is about the movie's domestic calendar gross in 2026 - dates outside of 2026 will not count toward this movie's gross. In the event of an exact tie the film that comes first alphabetically will be considered the winner. If there is no final data available by January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Wicked: For Good | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| Scream 7 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| The Odyssey | 2% YES | 98% NO |
| The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Dune: Messiah | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| The Super Mario Galaxy Movie | 7% YES | 93% NO |
| Movie C | — | |
The 2026 domestic box office will crown a single highest-grossing film by year-end, with settlement determined by Box Office Mojo's calendar gross figures. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 1% implied probability, suggesting traders assess this outcome as highly unlikely relative to alternative resolutions. This pricing emerges from the aggregated positions of market participants evaluating which film will accumulate the largest domestic gross across the full calendar year.
Historical precedent shows that the annual box office leader typically generates $800m–$1.2bn domestically in recent years. Avatar: The Way of Water (2022) grossed $2.32bn globally but $1.35bn domestically, whilst Top Gun: Maverick (2022) reached $1.49bn globally with $738m domestic. The 2026 slate remains partially unknown, but established franchises and tentpole releases from major studios—Marvel, Star Wars, DC, and established action-adventure properties—have historically dominated annual rankings. The 1% probability suggests the market views this particular outcome as a significant underdog relative to competing films.
Traders should monitor studio release schedules, which typically finalise 12–18 months ahead. Major announcements regarding 2026 tentpole releases, casting confirmations, and trailer drops will shape expectations. Production delays, director changes, or franchise cancellations could alter the competitive landscape. Box Office Mojo's reporting methodology and any definitional disputes regarding what constitutes "2026 gross" warrant attention, though the platform's calendar-based tracking is industry standard. Settlement depends on complete December data availability by 7 January 2027.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Highest grossing movie in 2026?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$6.2M in lifetime turnover and $573K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 2% by volume for pop culture contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $288K in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 6 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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