Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | 7% YES | 93% NO |
Hantavirus infections occur sporadically across the globe, transmitted primarily through contact with infected rodent droppings, urine, or saliva. The virus causes two main syndromes: Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS) in the Americas, with case fatality rates around 38%, and Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS) in Europe and Asia, with rates between 1–15% depending on the strain. Historically, hantavirus has remained geographically fragmented and seasonal, with outbreaks typically confined to specific regions rather than spreading person-to-person. The WHO has never formally declared a hantavirus pandemic, though sporadic clusters have prompted heightened surveillance—notably in Argentina in 2019 and parts of China in recent years. The current 8% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects the low baseline risk of WHO pandemic characterisation within the next two years, anchored to the virus's established epidemiological pattern and the high threshold required for official pandemic designation.
Traders monitoring this market should track WHO disease surveillance reports, particularly updates from its Western Pacific and European regional offices, which oversee the highest-burden regions. A material catalyst would be confirmation of sustained human-to-human transmission chains outside endemic areas or a significant spike in confirmed cases across multiple continents. Recent reporting from the CDC and Chinese health authorities on rodent population dynamics and seasonal hantavirus activity in 2024–2025 will inform risk assessment. The resolution criterion hinges specifically on explicit WHO pandemic language in official communications—a PHEIC declaration alone would not satisfy the condition. Traders should distinguish between increased epidemiological concern and the formal rhetorical threshold the WHO applies to pandemic status.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$5.1M in lifetime turnover and $1.5M of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 2% by volume for weather contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $1.1M in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 7%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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