Resolution criteria on PolyGram: The Grand Final of the Eurovision Song Contest 2026 is scheduled for May 16, 2026. This market will resolve to the country that receives the highest number of points from the televote in the Grand Final of the Eurovision Song Contest 2026. All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules. If no winner is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
Real-money prediction markets aggregate live odds from thousands of traders, surfacing a sharper probability than any single forecast. Odds will populate live once the order book fills (the resolution date has passed — final payout is being settled via UMA oracle), backed by $1.1M of resting liquidity.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Albania | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Austria | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Belgium | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Cyprus | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Denmark | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Georgia | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Israel | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Latvia | 0% YES | 100% NO |
The Eurovision Song Contest 2026 Grand Final is due on 16 May, and this market settles on the country that finishes top of the televote. At 1% implied, Polymarket is pricing this as a long-shot outcome, with the order book likely being driven by thin liquidity and a handful of resting bids rather than broad conviction. In practice, a price this low usually reflects the field being dominated by a small number of established front-runners, while anything outside that cluster trades as an option on a surprise surge in public voting.
Comparable Eurovision televote markets have often moved sharply once rehearsals, semi-final results and live performance clips reached the public. In recent market coverage, bookmakers and prediction venues have pointed in different directions: Eurovisionworld has listed Israel as the televote favourite, while other market summaries have described Finland as the broader contest leader and a major television-audience draw. That split is useful context because televote pricing tends to be more volatile than jury markets, especially when diaspora voting, staging, running order and late campaign momentum interact. The current 1% therefore says less about a fixed forecast and more about the market’s present reluctance to assign meaningful weight to outsiders.
The main catalysts are the live show itself, any official running-order information, and the final rehearsal and staging footage that can shift public sentiment quickly. Traders will also watch whether semi-final qualifiers convert into wider appeal in the final, and whether any country picks up an outsized regional or diaspora vote. Eurovision’s official channels remain the primary resolution source, but current pricing is being formed by the Polymarket book in real time, so even modest order flow can move the implied probability before the Grand Final starts.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
For this market, the resolution date is 16 May 2026. A UMA proposer can submit the outcome from that moment; the two-hour dispute window closes at , and assuming no counter-claim is staked, winning USDC clears to trader balances by approximately .
If a dispute is filed inside the two-hour window, the outcome escalates to UMA token-holder voting, which extends settlement by roughly 48 hours. Disputed resolutions are rare — fewer than 0.5% of PolyGram markets in 2026 to date — and even rarer for events with clear, verifiable resolution sources.
Funds clear directly to your in-app USDC balance on Polygon. From there, withdrawals are non-custodial: send to any address you control, typical confirmation under 30 seconds, gas paid in USDC if you'd rather not hold MATIC.
Minimum order size on PolyGram is $1.00, with no maximum cap aside from available book depth. Orders route into Polymarket's on-chain CLOB on Polygon; the matching engine pairs YES buyers with NO buyers atomically — every executed trade is settled on-chain with no counterparty risk.
The trade ticket includes a slippage box (default 2%, configurable 0.1%-10%) that caps the worst-case entry price. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning YES (or NO) shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Your slippage tolerance and the depth of resting limit orders determine the actual fill.
PolyGram charges 0% house edge — no spread mark-up, no rake on winnings, no withdrawal fees beyond network gas. The platform earns exclusively from optional features (copy-trade boosts, advanced order types, the yield vault on idle USDC); the trading surface itself is at-cost.
The mechanics for trading "Eurovision 2026: Televote Winner" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$8.4M in lifetime turnover and $1.1M of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 2% by volume for eurovision contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $940K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for around a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 16 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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