Resolution criteria on PolyGram: Drake's new album 'Iceman' is expected to release in the summer of 2026. This market will resolve according to the debut week sales for Drake's album 'Iceman', according to Hits Daily Double. If the album 'Iceman' has not been released by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If the album’s debut week sales fall exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. The primary resolution source for this market will be the "HITS TOP 50" list found at https://hitsdailydouble.com/sales_plus_streaming, specifically, the figure in the column titled "Activity", once the results are finalized for the album’s debut week.
Entertainment and pop-culture markets price events that traditional bookmakers won't touch — award winners, viral moments, cultural milestones. Current odds favour the NO side at 1%, making this a high-confidence market with 106 days to resolution, giving the order book ample time to absorb new information, backed by $352K of resting liquidity.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| <300k | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| 350k-400k | 2% YES | 98% NO |
| 450k-500k | 24% YES | 76% NO |
| 550k-600k | 17% YES | 83% NO |
| 300k-350k | 3% YES | 97% NO |
| 400k-450k | 7% YES | 93% NO |
| 500k-550k | 44% YES | 56% NO |
| 600k+ | 4% YES | 96% NO |
Drake’s *Iceman* is now out, but the market is about its first-week sales total as reported by Hits Daily Double, which will be read against the bracket structure in the market rules. The current crowd-implied 2% YES reflects the fact that Polymarket’s order book is pricing a very low chance of a high-sales outcome, not a view on quality or release certainty. For a debut this large, the key question is whether the album lands closer to Drake’s biggest streaming-era openings or whether recent demand has softened enough to keep it in a lower sales band.
Historically, Drake’s major releases have cleared very large first weeks by modern standards, but first-week sales are not a fixed brand-level number: they move with release timing, bundled versions, guest-list strength, and how heavily tracks are streamed rather than bought. Comparable rap releases have often seen opening-week figures swing materially depending on whether the rollout is a single-album drop or part of a broader multi-project event. Here, the reported same-day release of *Iceman* alongside *Maid of Honour* and *Habibti* may matter if attention is split across titles, since the market resolves only on *Iceman*’s standalone first-week figure.
The main catalysts are straightforward: an official release date and tracklist pattern, any late changes to the rollout, and then the Hits Daily Double update after launch. A recent Wikipedia entry indicates *Iceman* was released on 15 May 2026, but the tradable issue is the sales number, not the existence of the album. Traders should watch for whether Drake’s team pushes a conventional blockbuster campaign or a quieter drop, since the difference between a streaming-heavy but modest physical sales mix and a fully marketed event release will drive the bracket outcome.
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Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
For this market, the resolution date is 31 August 2026. A UMA proposer can submit the outcome from that moment; the two-hour dispute window closes at , and assuming no counter-claim is staked, winning USDC clears to trader balances by approximately .
If a dispute is filed inside the two-hour window, the outcome escalates to UMA token-holder voting, which extends settlement by roughly 48 hours. Disputed resolutions are rare — fewer than 0.5% of PolyGram markets in 2026 to date — and even rarer for events with clear, verifiable resolution sources.
Funds clear directly to your in-app USDC balance on Polygon. From there, withdrawals are non-custodial: send to any address you control, typical confirmation under 30 seconds, gas paid in USDC if you'd rather not hold MATIC.
Minimum order size on PolyGram is $1.00, with no maximum cap aside from available book depth. Orders route into Polymarket's on-chain CLOB on Polygon; the matching engine pairs YES buyers with NO buyers atomically — every executed trade is settled on-chain with no counterparty risk.
The trade ticket includes a slippage box (default 2%, configurable 0.1%-10%) that caps the worst-case entry price. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning YES (or NO) shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Your slippage tolerance and the depth of resting limit orders determine the actual fill.
PolyGram charges 0% house edge — no spread mark-up, no rake on winnings, no withdrawal fees beyond network gas. The platform earns exclusively from optional features (copy-trade boosts, advanced order types, the yield vault on idle USDC); the trading surface itself is at-cost.
The mechanics for trading "Drake 'Iceman' First Week Album Sales?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$516K in lifetime turnover and $352K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 2% by volume for pop culture contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $352K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for around a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 August 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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