This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT Apr 30 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the May 1 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT Apr 30 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the May 1 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50.
Market outcomes
| Ethereum Up or Down on May 1? | 80% YES | 21% NO |
A prediction market is a real-money contract that pays $1 per YES share if the stated outcome occurs, and $0 if it does not. The current price is therefore the crowd's probability estimate — set by thousands of traders competing in a live order book, not a bookmaker. PolyGram routes your order into the same Polymarket venue, adds an email-first login and USDC deposits, and settles on Polygon within minutes of the result.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 80%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
The market is scheduled to close on 1 May 2026. Settlement typically clears within 24 hours after the resolving event, once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome.