Resolution criteria on PolyGram: What price will Bitcoin hit on June 2?
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| ↑ 75,000 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| ↓ 67,000 | 68% YES | 32% NO |
| ↑ 78,000 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| ↑ 74,000 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| ↓ 68,000 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| ↓ 66,000 | 18% YES | 82% NO |
| ↓ 64,000 | 2% YES | 98% NO |
| ↓ 63,000 | 2% YES | 98% NO |
Bitcoin's price action on 2 June 2026 will be determined by intraday volatility and broader market conditions across that specific date. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 1% implied probability, suggesting traders assess a very low likelihood of the asset reaching the specified price level during the settlement window. This probability is being formed through active trading on the platform, with the spread between bid and ask prices indicating where marginal participants currently value this outcome.
Historical precedent shows that single-day Bitcoin price targets require either extraordinary volatility or a significant catalyst aligned precisely with the settlement date. Bitcoin's largest daily moves—typically 15–20% in either direction—occur during periods of regulatory announcements, macroeconomic shocks, or major exchange events. The 1% probability reflects the statistical rarity of such moves on any randomly selected date, particularly when the target price appears substantially distant from current levels.
Traders monitoring this market should track scheduled events in early June 2026, including central bank decisions, US employment data releases, and any cryptocurrency-specific regulatory announcements. Bitcoin's correlation with equity markets and risk sentiment remains a primary driver of intraday volatility. The settlement window closing on 3 June at 04:00 UTC means the price must be reached during the preceding calendar day in major trading jurisdictions, concentrating liquidity risk into a narrow timeframe. Current market depth on Polymarket suggests limited conviction behind either side of this outcome.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "What price will Bitcoin hit on June 2?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$451K in lifetime turnover and $135K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 2% by volume for bitcoin contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $451K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 3 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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