Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.
Crypto-price prediction markets like this one tend to gain volume in the final 48 hours as derivatives traders hedge spot exposure. Odds will populate live once the order book fills with 1 day to resolution — final-48h markets historically see the largest volume spikes, backed by $218K of resting liquidity.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| 86,000 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 80,000 | 28% YES | 72% NO |
| 82,000 | 3% YES | 97% NO |
| 70,000 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| 72,000 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| 74,000 | 99% YES | 1% NO |
| 76,000 | 98% YES | 2% NO |
| 78,000 | 83% YES | 17% NO |
This market settles on the Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle closing price at noon Eastern Time on 16 May 2026. The 0% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects either an unset threshold price in the market title or extremely low conviction that Bitcoin will reach a specified level at that precise moment. With nearly eighteen months until settlement, the current order book depth is likely thin, making the probability estimate highly sensitive to even modest trading activity.
Bitcoin's intraday volatility at specific timestamps has historically been difficult to predict with confidence, particularly when settlement hinges on a single 1-minute candle rather than daily closes. Comparable markets on Binance spot prices show that noon ET closures can deviate substantially from 24-hour averages, especially during US market open hours when institutional flows and derivatives expiry effects create sharp moves. The specificity of this market—pinning resolution to one exchange, one trading pair, and one minute—introduces execution risk that typically widens spreads and depresses participation in prediction markets.
Traders monitoring this market should track macroeconomic calendars for May 2026, Federal Reserve communications, and any major cryptocurrency regulatory announcements that could influence spot prices. Bitcoin's correlation with equities and Treasury yields remains a primary driver of directional bias. The settlement window closes at 16:00 UTC (noon ET), so traders must verify Binance's candle data directly rather than relying on aggregators, as data feeds occasionally diverge across platforms during volatile periods.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
For this market, the resolution date is 16 May 2026. A UMA proposer can submit the outcome from that moment; the two-hour dispute window closes at , and assuming no counter-claim is staked, winning USDC clears to trader balances by approximately .
If a dispute is filed inside the two-hour window, the outcome escalates to UMA token-holder voting, which extends settlement by roughly 48 hours. Disputed resolutions are rare — fewer than 0.5% of PolyGram markets in 2026 to date — and even rarer for events with clear, verifiable resolution sources.
Funds clear directly to your in-app USDC balance on Polygon. From there, withdrawals are non-custodial: send to any address you control, typical confirmation under 30 seconds, gas paid in USDC if you'd rather not hold MATIC.
Minimum order size on PolyGram is $1.00, with no maximum cap aside from available book depth. Orders route into Polymarket's on-chain CLOB on Polygon; the matching engine pairs YES buyers with NO buyers atomically — every executed trade is settled on-chain with no counterparty risk.
The trade ticket includes a slippage box (default 2%, configurable 0.1%-10%) that caps the worst-case entry price. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning YES (or NO) shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Your slippage tolerance and the depth of resting limit orders determine the actual fill.
PolyGram charges 0% house edge — no spread mark-up, no rake on winnings, no withdrawal fees beyond network gas. The platform earns exclusively from optional features (copy-trade boosts, advanced order types, the yield vault on idle USDC); the trading surface itself is at-cost.
The mechanics for trading "Bitcoin above ___ on May 16?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$778K in lifetime turnover and $218K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 2% by volume for bitcoin contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $607K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 16 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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