Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31, 2026, as of market close. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Tech and product-launch markets reflect insider whisper, dev signals and roadmap leaks — the order book frequently leads official announcements by weeks. Current odds favour the YES side at 97%, making this a high-confidence market with 10 days to resolution, well inside the window where catalysts move price most, backed by $810K of resting liquidity.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| NVIDIA | 97% YES | 3% NO |
| Apple | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Tesla | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Amazon | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Company A | — | |
| Company C | — | |
| Company E | — | |
| Company G | — | |
The question is which listed company will have the highest market capitalisation at the end of May 2026, using the market close on 31 May. On Polymarket, the current 96% crowd-implied probability reflects a very one-sided order book, with most liquidity concentrated on the leading name and little demand for the alternative outcomes. That sort of pricing usually means traders are treating the current leader as stable rather than expecting a late-month reshuffle.
The recent frame of reference is a market dominated by large-cap technology names, where the top slot has changed only when one company has opened a clear valuation gap or another has had an outsized move. Recent market-cap tables from May 2026 place NVIDIA first, ahead of Alphabet, Apple, Microsoft and Amazon, while reporting also notes NVIDIA as the first listed company to pass a $5 trillion valuation. In that context, a 96% YES price suggests the market expects the present ranking to persist through month-end unless there is a sharp relative move in one of the top five.
What matters now is the path of share prices into the final week, not just headline size. Traders will be watching company results, guidance updates, and any macro moves that affect the largest names differently, especially around chip demand, cloud spending and mega-cap index flows. NVIDIA’s latest leadership position has been widely reported in recent coverage from TradingKey and AlphaSense, and any reversal would likely need a material sell-off in the leader or a stronger run from a close rival. With settlement tied to market close on 31 May, the final readings on that day are what matter, not intraday peaks.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
For this market, the resolution date is 31 May 2026. A UMA proposer can submit the outcome from that moment; the two-hour dispute window closes at , and assuming no counter-claim is staked, winning USDC clears to trader balances by approximately .
If a dispute is filed inside the two-hour window, the outcome escalates to UMA token-holder voting, which extends settlement by roughly 48 hours. This particular market has no public resolution feed listed; disputes here are more likely if the underlying outcome is subject to interpretation, in which case the UMA token-vote arbitrates the wording of the original market question.
Tech and product-launch markets resolve from official company announcements — payouts clear quickly when the launch is unambiguous (a public release), and slowly only when the event spec required a specific feature subset that needs verification. Funds clear directly to your in-app USDC balance on Polygon. Withdrawals are non-custodial: send to any address you control, typical confirmation under 30 seconds, gas paid in USDC if you'd rather not hold MATIC.
Minimum order size on PolyGram is $1.00, with no maximum cap aside from available book depth. Orders route into Polymarket's on-chain CLOB on Polygon; the matching engine pairs YES buyers with NO buyers atomically — every executed trade is settled on-chain with no counterparty risk. For "Largest Company end of May?", tech markets see asymmetric depth — heavy on one side when consensus is one-directional, with the contrarian side often offering favourable risk/reward for short-position seekers.
The trade ticket includes a slippage box (default 2%, configurable 0.1%-10%) that caps the worst-case entry price. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning YES (or NO) shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. With this market's current book depth ($810K of resting liquidity), a $500 order should fill with single-cent slippage at the displayed mid-price.
PolyGram charges 0% house edge — no spread mark-up, no rake on winnings, no withdrawal fees beyond network gas. The platform earns exclusively from optional features (copy-trade boosts, advanced order types, the yield vault on idle USDC); the trading surface itself is at-cost.
The mechanics for trading "Largest Company end of May?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$6.9M in lifetime turnover and $810K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 2% by volume for tech contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $503K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for around a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose. For "Largest Company end of May?", the considerations above apply directly — Tech and product-launch markets are exposed to launch delays — even a one-week slip past the deadline resolves NO regardless of how close the company was to launching. Set sharp alerts on roadmap leaks and earnings calls.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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