Trade: Ukraine coup attempt by June 30?
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Ukraine at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Ukrainian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $11K
- Total Volume
- $9K
- 24h Volume
- $145
- Open Interest
- $4K
Market outcomes
| Ukraine coup attempt by June 30? | 4% YES | 96% NO |
Market context
Ukraine's political system has faced persistent instability since the 2022 Russian invasion, yet formal coup attempts by state actors remain absent. The 18-month settlement window extends through mid-2026, encompassing a period when Zelenskyy's wartime authority and military command structures remain central to governance. The current 4% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects assessor confidence in institutional continuity, though the market recognises non-zero risk given Ukraine's fractious civil-military relations and the concentration of power within the presidency during armed conflict.
Historical precedent offers limited direct comparison. Ukraine's 2004 Orange Revolution and 2013–2014 Euromaidan were popular uprisings rather than state-orchestrated coups. The closest analogue—the 1991 hardline coup attempt in the Soviet Union—involved security apparatus actors but occurred in a different political context. Traders should note that Ukrainian military factions have occasionally signalled discontent with strategic decisions, yet institutional norms around civilian control have held despite wartime pressures. The definition's requirement for "coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors" sets a high bar, excluding unilateral presidential overreach or factional infighting without explicit seizure attempts.
Key catalysts include changes in military command structure, shifts in Western military support affecting Zelenskyy's political standing, and any public statements from security service leadership questioning civilian authority. The 2025 Ukrainian parliamentary elections and potential peace negotiations could alter civil-military dynamics. Recent reporting from Reuters and local Ukrainian media has documented occasional tensions between the General Staff and presidency, though these remain within normal wartime friction rather than indicating coup preparation.
Wikipedia Context
-
Revolution of DignityThe Revolution of Dignity, also known as the Maidan Revolution or the Ukrainian Revolution, took place in Ukraine in February 2014 at the end of the Euromaidan protests. Scores of protesters were killed by government forces during clashes in the capital Kyiv. Parliament then voted to remove President Viktor Yanukovych, return to the 2004 Constitution of Ukra
-
Ukraine Support ActThe Ukraine Support Act was a proposed act of congress that would have clarified U.S. policy to support the sovereignty and territorial integrity of a democratic Ukraine, and in condemning Russia's illegal annexation of Crimea. The bill would offer loan guarantees, various types of aid, and place sanctions on people who were "responsible for or engaged in ac
-
UkraineUkraine is a country in Eastern Europe. It is the second-largest country in Europe after Russia, which borders it to the east and northeast. Ukraine also borders Belarus to the north; Poland and Slovakia to the west; Hungary, Romania and Moldova to the southwest; and the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov to the south and southeast. Kyiv is Ukraine's capital and
-
War in DonbasThe war in Donbas, also called the Donbas war, was a phase of the Russo-Ukrainian war in the eastern Donbas region of Ukraine. The war began in April 2014, when Russian-backed fighters began an uprising against the Ukrainian government, seized territory and declared independent states. Ukraine's military launched an operation against them, but failed to full
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Ukraine coup attempt by June 30?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 4% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $2500 if YES resolves true — a 2400% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$9K in lifetime turnover and $11K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for zelenskyy contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $145 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 4 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
What is the current probability for "Ukraine coup attempt by June 30?"?
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 4%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 30 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Ukraine coup attempt by June 30?"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
Related prediction markets
Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: