Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the location of the next meeting between Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Vladimir Putin by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If no meeting takes place by December 31 ET, this market will resolve to "No meeting before 2027". A meeting is defined as any encounter where Zelenskyy and Putin are both present and interact with each other in person. For the purpose of this market, a meeting held on Ukrainian territory under the de facto control of Russia (e.g., Crimea) will be considered part of Russia. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Turkey | 7% YES | 93% NO |
| Russia | 4% YES | 96% NO |
| Italy / Vatican | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Ukraine | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| China | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| Qatar / UAE | 5% YES | 95% NO |
| Saudi Arabia | 2% YES | 98% NO |
| US | 5% YES | 95% NO |
A direct in-person meeting between Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Russia's President Vladimir Putin has not occurred since February 2022, when Russia launched its full-scale invasion. The question of whether these two leaders will meet face-to-face before the end of 2026 hinges on fundamental shifts in the conflict's trajectory or diplomatic frameworks. The current 5% implied probability on Polymarket reflects the substantial barriers to such an encounter: active military hostilities, mutual accusations of war crimes, and the absence of credible diplomatic channels that would facilitate a summit.
Historical precedent suggests that direct leader-to-leader meetings during active conflicts typically require either military stalemate, third-party mediation, or significant geopolitical pressure. The 1973 Kissinger shuttle diplomacy during the Yom Kippur War and the Korean War armistice negotiations involved intermediaries rather than immediate bilateral meetings. Putin and Zelenskyy last met in Paris in December 2019; subsequent negotiations have relied on delegations and video calls. The current order book pricing reflects scepticism about rapid diplomatic breakthroughs within the settlement window.
Traders should monitor announcements regarding peace negotiations, particularly any involvement from the incoming Trump administration or other major powers. The International Criminal Court's arrest warrant for Putin complicates travel to neutral venues. Ceasefire agreements, UN-brokered talks, or unexpected diplomatic initiatives would be primary catalysts. Recent reporting from Reuters and other outlets indicates no active negotiations at leadership level as of late 2024, though the political landscape could shift materially during 2025.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$2.4M in lifetime turnover and $151K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 2% by volume for world contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $13K in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 6 months — long enough that the order book is mature and price is well-anchored to fundamentals.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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