Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to “Yes” if Giorgia Meloni ceases to be the Prime Minister of Italy for any period of time between December 5, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Giorgia Melon's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of Italy, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Meloni out as Prime Minister of Italy by June 30? | 3% YES | 97% NO |
Giorgia Meloni has served as Prime Minister of Italy since October 2022, leading a right-wing coalition government. The market assesses the probability she will be removed from or resign from office at any point between early December 2025 and the end of June 2026. Current order book pricing implies a 3% chance of this occurring within the seven-month window.
Italian governments have historically faced instability, with the average tenure lasting roughly two years. However, Meloni's coalition has proved more durable than many predecessors, surviving internal tensions and maintaining parliamentary majorities through 2024 and into 2025. Her Brothers of Italy party remains the largest in the coalition, and she has consolidated considerable political authority. Comparable recent cases—such as Mario Draghi's departure in September 2022 following coalition fracture—typically involved explicit triggering events rather than gradual erosion, suggesting sudden catalysts would be required for early exit.
Traders monitoring this market should track coalition stability indicators, particularly any breakdown in relations between Meloni's party and coalition partners, as well as parliamentary confidence votes. Budget negotiations and European Union fiscal negotiations scheduled for early 2026 could create pressure points. Health issues, criminal investigations, or major electoral setbacks in regional elections would represent material catalysts. The Italian political calendar shows no snap elections scheduled for this period, which structurally supports continuity. Recent reporting from major outlets including Reuters and ANSA has documented the coalition's relative stability through late 2024, though internal friction over spending priorities persists.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Meloni out as Prime Minister of Italy by June 30?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$52K in lifetime turnover and $16K of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for world contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $90 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 5 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 3%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 30 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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