Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is found guilty of all counts in the indictment 'UNITED STATES OF AMERICA V. NICOLAS MADURO MOROS[...]' (S4 11 Cr. 205 (AKH)) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the initial verdict rendered by the court regarding Maduro’s indictment as of market creation (https://www.justice.gov/opa/media/1422326/dl).
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Maduro guilty of all counts? | 10% YES | 90% NO |
Nicolás Maduro, Venezuela's president, faces a US federal indictment in Manhattan (S4 11 Cr. 205) on charges including narcotics trafficking, money laundering, and conspiracy. The case requires conviction on every count for this market to resolve "Yes"—a notably high threshold. Maduro remains in Venezuela and has not appeared in US court; his extradition remains highly unlikely given Venezuela's non-cooperation with US authorities and the absence of an extradition treaty. The current 10% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects the substantial legal and logistical barriers to securing a conviction on all counts.
Historical precedent suggests convictions in absentia on all counts are uncommon in US federal prosecutions, particularly involving foreign heads of state with no realistic prospect of surrender. Comparable cases—such as those against other Latin American figures indicted whilst remaining outside US jurisdiction—typically result in either partial convictions, acquittals on specific counts, or proceedings that stall indefinitely. The requirement for unanimity across all charges substantially narrows the path to "Yes" resolution.
Key catalysts include any unexpected shift in Venezuelan political circumstances that might alter Maduro's position, changes in US-Venezuela diplomatic relations, or developments in related cases against Maduro associates already in US custody. As of late 2024, no trial date has been set. The December 2027 settlement window provides nearly three years for material developments, though the fundamental jurisdictional challenge remains unchanged. Traders should monitor Venezuelan political stability and any statements from the US Department of Justice regarding prosecution strategy.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Maduro guilty of all counts?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$103K in lifetime turnover and $14K of resting liquidity puts this market in the above the median by volume for world contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $2 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 4 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 10%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 December 2027. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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