Trade: Who will meet with Iran by June 30?
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between the listed individual, acting as a representative of the United States, and representatives of Iran by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. To qualify, the listed individual must be physically present at the meeting and actively participate as a negotiator representing the United States. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $38K
- Total Volume
- $11K
- 24h Volume
- $2K
- Open Interest
- $6K
Market outcomes
| Donald Trump | 7% YES | 93% NO |
| J.D. Vance | 14% YES | 87% NO |
| Jared Kushner | 34% YES | 67% NO |
| Marco Rubio | 12% YES | 89% NO |
| Steve Witkoff | 40% YES | 60% NO |
Market context
The question hinges on whether Steve Witkoff, Trump's Middle East envoy and incoming White House Chief of Staff, will conduct direct diplomatic talks with Iranian officials by the end of June 2026. Such a meeting would require both parties to agree to formal negotiations, with Witkoff physically present and actively negotiating on behalf of the United States. The 7% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects substantial scepticism about this outcome materialising within the 18-month window.
Historical precedent suggests direct US-Iran diplomatic engagement remains rare and contingent on significant geopolitical shifts. The last substantive bilateral talks occurred under the Obama administration, culminating in the 2015 JCPOA. Trump's first term saw maximum pressure and no direct negotiations. Witkoff's appointment signals potential openness to Middle East diplomacy, but Iran's current posture and domestic constraints in both capitals make formal talks unlikely without a major catalyst—such as a nuclear crisis, regional conflict escalation, or explicit policy reversal by the Trump administration.
Traders should monitor announcements regarding US sanctions policy, Iranian nuclear programme developments, and any public statements from either government about diplomatic channels. The timing of UN General Assembly sessions, potential Israeli-Iranian escalations, and statements from Witkoff himself will signal whether conditions are shifting. Recent reporting from Reuters and other outlets has emphasised the Trump team's focus on Israel and Gulf states rather than Iran engagement, which supports the current low probability. Any shift in rhetoric or leaked diplomatic overtures would likely move the market sharply.
Wikipedia Context
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Meet-in-the-middle attack
The meet-in-the-middle attack (MITM), a known-plaintext attack, is a generic space–time tradeoff cryptographic attack against encryption schemes that rely on performing multiple encryption operations in sequence. The MITM attack is the primary reason why Double DES is not used and why a Triple DES key (168-bit) can be brute-forced by an attacker with 256 spa
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Meet in the Middle"Meet in the Middle" is a song recorded by American country music band Diamond Rio. It was released in February 1991 as their debut single, and served as the first single in the album Diamond Rio. The single reached number one on the U.S. Billboard Hot Country Singles & Tracks charts, making Diamond Rio the first country music band in history to have its deb
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Meet Danny Wilson (film)Meet Danny Wilson is a 1952 American drama musical film starring Frank Sinatra, Shelley Winters and Alex Nicol. Directed by Joseph Pevney, the picture captures Sinatra during his career slump between his bobby-soxer heyday and From Here to Eternity (1953) resurrection. He plays a small-time singer who vaults to the top of his profession, only to be threatene
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Meet Danny Wilson (album)Meet Danny Wilson is the debut album by Scottish pop group Danny Wilson. It became a significant hit in America on the strength of the summer of 1987 hit single "Mary's Prayer". In Canada, it spent 3 weeks at number 88.
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Who will meet with Iran by June 30?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$11K in lifetime turnover and $38K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for witkoff contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is strong — order books support five-figure trades with single-cent slippage.
Last 24 hours alone saw $2K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 30 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Who will meet with Iran by June 30?"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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