Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| 12°C or below | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 13°C | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| 14°C | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| 15°C | 9% YES | 91% NO |
| 16°C | 10% YES | 90% NO |
| 17°C | 38% YES | 63% NO |
| 18°C | 36% YES | 64% NO |
| 19°C | 6% YES | 95% NO |
On 12 May 2026, the lowest temperature recorded at Tokyo Haneda Airport Station will determine which temperature range resolves this market. The settlement window closes at midday UTC, with resolution sourced from Weather Underground's historical data for that specific location. The current order book on Polymarket shows 0% implied probability across all temperature bands, indicating either minimal trading activity or a technical display issue rather than genuine market consensus that no temperature will be recorded.
Tokyo's May climate typically produces overnight lows between 15–18°C, with occasional dips to 12–14°C during cooler spells. Historical May data from Haneda shows the lowest temperatures rarely fall below 10°C, though this does occur roughly once per decade. The 0% probability across all ranges suggests traders have not yet engaged with this market, making current pricing uninformative about actual temperature expectations. Comparable May weather markets in East Asia have typically seen distributed probabilities across multiple bands rather than complete zeroing.
Traders should monitor Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts as May 2026 approaches, particularly any unusual pressure systems or cold fronts tracking towards the Kanto region. Haneda's coastal location and urban heat island effects generally moderate temperatures compared to inland stations. The resolution methodology—using Weather Underground's historical archive rather than real-time reporting—means data availability and any potential corrections to recorded temperatures could affect settlement timing, though such revisions are uncommon for established weather stations.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Lowest temperature in Tokyo on May 12?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$6K in lifetime turnover and $14K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for weather contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $5K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 12 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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