Trade: Highest temperature in Warsaw on May 11?

Market context

On 11 May 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Warsaw Chopin Airport will fall within one of several defined ranges. The settlement will draw from historical weather data logged at this station, with Wunderground's archive serving as the authoritative source. The current order book on Polymarket shows 0% implied probability across all temperature brackets, indicating either minimal trading activity or a technical issue with how positions are being displayed at present.

Warsaw's May weather typically ranges between 15–24°C, though the city experiences considerable year-to-year variation. Historical records from the past two decades show May 11 temperatures clustering around 18–22°C on average, with occasional outliers reaching 26–28°C during warm springs. The 0% crowd probability across all ranges is unusual and suggests traders have not yet engaged substantively with this market, making current prices unreliable as forecasts. Comparable European weather markets at this distance from settlement usually show distributed probabilities reflecting seasonal norms and climate model consensus.

Traders monitoring this market should track European weather forecasting updates as May 2026 approaches, particularly from ECMWF and national meteorological institutes. Spring weather patterns across Central Europe—influenced by Atlantic pressure systems and occasional warm continental air masses—will become clearer in the weeks preceding settlement. Any significant warming or cooling signals in seasonal outlooks would shift reasonable probability distributions substantially from historical May averages.

Resolution source

This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.

How to trade this market step by step

The mechanics for trading "Highest temperature in Warsaw on May 11?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.

1. Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
2. Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
3. Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
4. Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
5. Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
6. Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.

How active is this market?

$55K in lifetime turnover and $67K of resting liquidity puts this market in the above the median by volume for weather contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.

Last 24 hours alone saw $42K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.

The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.

Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.

Key terms

YES / NO share

A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

CLOB

Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.

Liquidity

USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.

UMA optimistic oracle

The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.

Slippage

The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.

Conditional token

ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.

See the full prediction-market glossary →

Frequently asked questions

Risk and regulatory note

Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.

Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.

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