Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 9 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| 51°F or below | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 52-53°F | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 54-55°F | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 56-57°F | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 58-59°F | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 60-61°F | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 62-63°F | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 64-65°F | 99% YES | 1% NO |
On 9 May 2026, the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport will fall within one of several defined ranges, measured in Fahrenheit. The settlement will draw from Weather Underground's historical data for that specific date, capturing the peak temperature across all hours of the day. Currently, the order book on Polymarket shows 0% implied probability across all temperature brackets, indicating either extremely wide bid-ask spreads, minimal liquidity, or that traders have not yet positioned ahead of this May event.
New York's May temperatures typically range between 60°F and 85°F, with historical May highs at LaGuardia averaging around 80–82°F. The 0% crowd probability suggests the market lacks sufficient depth to establish consensus pricing. Early-season positioning in weather markets often reflects sparse trading volume until nearer the settlement date, when meteorological forecasts become more reliable and traders reassess their positions.
The primary catalyst will be seasonal weather patterns emerging in spring 2026. Traders should monitor the National Weather Service's extended forecasts as May approaches, particularly any signals of early heat waves or cooler-than-normal patterns affecting the Northeast. Atlantic weather systems and high-pressure systems moving into the region will drive actual outcomes. Until forecasters can narrow the range with greater confidence—typically within 7–10 days of the event—the current zero-probability state likely reflects rational hesitation rather than conviction about any particular temperature band.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Highest temperature in NYC on May 9?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$123K in lifetime turnover and $10K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 30% by volume for weather contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $103K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 9 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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