Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Helsinki Vantaa Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Helsinki Vantaa Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fi/vantaa/EFHK. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| 6°C or below | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 7°C | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 8°C | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 9°C | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 10°C | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 11°C | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 12°C | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| 13°C | 0% YES | 100% NO |
On 5 May 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Helsinki Vantaa Airport will fall into one of several defined ranges in Celsius. The market currently shows 0% implied probability across all outcomes on Polymarket's order book, indicating either extremely thin liquidity or that traders have not yet priced this event. Resolution will depend on historical weather data from Weather Underground, which maintains detailed records for the Finnish airport station.
Helsinki's May temperatures typically range between 10–18°C, though the city experiences considerable variability during spring transition periods. Historical data from recent years shows maximum temperatures on early May dates clustering around 12–16°C, with occasional outliers reaching 20°C during warmer springs. The 0% crowd probability suggests the market lacks sufficient order book depth to establish meaningful price discovery at present, rather than reflecting genuine confidence in any particular temperature outcome.
Traders monitoring this market should track European weather forecasting models as May approaches, particularly the ECMWF and GFS systems which provide reliable guidance for Nordic regions 7–10 days ahead. Spring weather patterns across northern Europe remain sensitive to Atlantic pressure systems and Arctic air intrusions, both of which could materially shift Helsinki's temperature trajectory. Current meteorological conditions and seasonal anomalies will become clearer in late April, when more actionable forecast data emerges for the specific settlement date.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fi/vantaa/EFHK. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Highest temperature in Helsinki on May 5?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$66K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the above the median by volume for weather contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fi/vantaa/EFHK. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 5 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: